"We expect deficit reduction to slow after FY26, with a fall to 4.2% of GDP in FY27 and 4.1% in FY28. Capex is likely to stay high and the current Pay Commission review will increase civil servant salaries amid more limited space for subsidy cuts and the potential for slightly revenue-negative GST reforms."
A shock could lead to slippage, but the CG has shown a preference to keep deficits contained, it added.
The rating agency expects the general government (GG) deficit to narrow to 7.3% of GDP in FY26 (2025 BBB median: 3.5%) and 7.0% by FY28 from a Fitch-estimated 7.8% in FY25. "We estimate the aggregate state deficit rose to 3.0% of GDP in FY25, but will stabilise at 2.9% starting FY26."
_Structural Fiscal Weaknesses_*
India's GG debt burden is elevated at a Fitch-estimated 80.9% of GDP in FY25, well above the 59.6% 'BBB' median. "We forecast a slight rise in debt to 81.5% in FY26, as nominal growth slips. We expect debt to follow only a modest downward trend to 78.5% by FY30, even as nominal growth recovers to 10.5%. If nominal growth persists at below 10%, debt reduction could become challenging. Medium-term fiscal policy will now be anchored by the CG's new objective of reducing CG debt to 50% (+/-1%) by FY31, from 56.1% in FY26, per budget estimates."
The government finances the high debt in its domestic market with limited foreign participation and a low share of foreign-currency debt in total debt at around 3% (BBB median: 30%), said Fitch.
"However, the interest/revenue ratio, at near 23.5%, remains elevated, well above the 9% 'BBB' median, constraining fiscal flexibility to pursue alternative spending objectives. We forecast a slight decline in this ratio to 22.7% by FY28 due to falling interest rates, but it is likely to remain a key weakness in India's credit profile for some time."
*_Strong External Finances_*
India's external finances remain a rating strength, underpinned by high FX reserves, a net external creditor position, and a low current account deficit (CAD).
Fitch forecasts a stable CAD at 0.7% of GDP in FY26 before rising gradually to a still modest 1.5% by FY28. FX reserves rose by USD59 billion to USD695 billion by 15 August 2025 from end-December 2024, around eight months of current external payment coverage.
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