Tuesday 30 December 2008

Market View for 31 December 2008

Hello Readers / Visitors,

As told yesterday markets are likely to move up & the same happened today. After a gap up opening we saw some profit booking but in later half the same turned out to be value buying for the day & we saw a sharp upmove once Nifty crossed 2920 with Volumes.

Also we have written that if Nifty crosses 2950 then it will move into congestion levels of 2950-2990 with high volatility. Day traders who track markets would have seen that once Nifty crossed 2950 it went directly to test resistance level of 2990 & again saw huge profit booking from there & the steep fall was mainly due to large profit booking in Reliance industries as this stock too test upper resistance of 1275 & fell sharply upto support levels of 1225 & managed to closed around 1250 levels.

For Tomorrow Nifty Close : 2979.50
Supports : 2950-2920-2880
Resistances : 2990-3030-3080

Tomorrow if Nifty crosses 2990with volumes then it will test upper resistances as mentioned above & chances are bright that it will test higher levels. Yesterday we Disclosed that Our PREMIUM CLIENTS hold Nifty with trailing stop loss some profits were booked today. The whole day Nifty traded in band of 2880- 2990 a move in 110 points.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATE :

Ril today tested imp support of 1225 & bounced back to 1275 levels. So for tommorrow if RIL crosses 1275 with volumes then it may test 1290-1310 levels on higher side.

RIL Close : 1250
Supports : 1225-1210-1190
Resistances : 1275-1290-1310

PROVISIONAL FIGURES FOR 30 DECEMEBER 2008 IN RUPEES CRORES :

Cash Segment:

Fii +215
Inst +376

Derivatives Segment :

Fii +644
Idx Fut +328
Idx opt +226
Stk Fut +37
Stk opt +54

ALSO THERE ARE MANY POSITIVE RUMORS GOING ON MARKETS SINCE LAST MANY DAYS LIKE STIMULAS PACKAGE, RATE CUTS : CRR, SLR , FUEL PRICE CUT, YEAR END NAV BUYING etc etccccc BUT THE SAME IS NOT HAPPENING AS GOVT IS NOT BOUND TO GIVE WHEN PEOPLE EXPECT BUT MAY DELIVER WHEN PEOPLE WILL BE TIRED EXPECTING.

Tommorrow there will be last trading day for CALENDER YEAR 2008, May be this day be profitable for all of you.

GOOD DAY , HAPPY TRADING

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website :
http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Newsletters :
http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Monday 29 December 2008

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Today markets bounces from weekly trendline supports & also tested lifeline / trendline which we have mentioned earlier in our previous posts. Sensex weekly support 9100-9150 & Nifty 2800. Also today morning we have updated the same to our sms members that markets are likely to bounce from weekly supports & fortunately the same happened.

Nifty intra day Calls given to clients : buy at 2840 with sl 2800 & target 2920 & 2990, part profits were booked on 2920 & balance with trail stop loss. Markets are purely trading in a channel range & buying seen at channel supports & selling at resistances, good for day & short term traders with positional calls like our PREMIUM CLIENTS are doing.....

For tommorrow Nifty close 2922
Supports 2880-2850-2800
Resistance 2950-2965-2990-3030

If tommorrow if markets move up, it will move then will go into congestion levels of 2950-2990 where it may give volatile moves as we have seen today in range 2820-2850 where 4 some day traders stop loss may be hit & later on targets will be achieved too & vice versa.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATE:

Ril today have tested lower supports levels of congestion of 1150-1180, this levels are strong supports for the stock, until the stock sustains these levels on closing basis we can may see the stock bouncing from these levels. But if we close these levels with volumes then it may even test previous lows of last month.

Reliance industries close : 1246
Supports : 1225-1205-1190
Resistances : 1265 - 1285 - 1310

PROVISIONAL FIGURES FOR 29 DECEMBER 2008 IN RUPEES CRORES :

Cash Segment :

Fii +4
Inst +243

Fii(deri)
Idx fut +23
Idx opt +157
Stk fut -63
Stk opt +76
Net +193

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Sample of Sms Services for Indian Mobile nos :

Financial Market Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Economy News & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN9

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Wednesday 17 December 2008

MARKET REPORTS END OF DAY

Dear Readers / Visitors,

Markets these days are trading in very narrow range after opening gap up or gap down ( due to global cues ). The real moves in markets are seen in the later half of trading session & the move is being very wild in either side.

Today selling pressure was seen in ADAG group stocks in early morning trades & in later half they were hammered in range of 5 to 15 % down. Also hammering was seen in stocks who have been rallying for no reasons like Suzlon, Dlf, Acc & many other small & mid cap stocks. We have sent alerts yesterday by sms to our GROUP members to stay away from such small false rally. Hope you all have benefitted due to such alerts well in advance.
Today a very dirty game has been played with Investors money in stock like Satyam Computers Ltd on news of stake buy in Maytas Infra Ltd & later on denying the news. The stock was down only 30% based on such rubbish move from the management. The final looser is the long term investor & short term trader with long positions. Such over night move can really help investors to loose hard earned money. But KUCH BHI NAHI HO SAKTA HAI IN INDIA.

Yesterday we have updated charts of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES indicating profit booking range from Rs 1350-1400. But please remember we have not asked to go short in that stock.

2DAYS WRAP UP IN BRIEF :

Sell-off in metal, telecom, power, capital goods stocks as well as in Reliance Industries and sharp cut in Satyam Computer has pushed the benchmark indices sharply lower. Downtrend in European markets and US futures also added some fuel in part to negative sentiment.
The markets had started the day with gap up but immediately indices turned extermely volatile. In the second half of session, finally both benchmark indices slipped into red following weak European markets and US futures. The Nifty went below 2950 as well in late trade.

The Sensex has touched an intraday low of 9,682.91, before closing the day at 9,715.29, down 261.69 points or 2.62% from previous close. In the beginning, it tested 10,000 mark.
The 50-share Nifty slipped 2.87% or 87.40 points, to settle at 2954.35, after touching an intraday low of 2943.50. It was hovering around 3000 mark for major part of the day, but profit booking pushed below the same level.

Draggers in today's trade were Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communication, Satyam, BHEL, SBI, L&T and Reliance Infrastructure. However, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ONGC, HUL, HDFC Bank, Grasim and Wipro were on buyers' radar throughout the session.
We have updated charts of Sensex EOD basis, which gives us hints that markets were very close to Resistance or Profit booking zone. The two key technicals where profit booking was hinted as trendline or channel resistance & another 61.8% fibo retracement levels.

Any close above the trendline resistance can help markets to move even higher else profit booking would remain the key in next few trading sessions.

MARKETS UP OR DOWN : A SMILE ON CLIENTS FACE THROUGH OUR PREMIUM CALLS. We do give Premium Trading Calls to our Paid members, for more details on this contact personally & get subscription details on this web.

Good day , Happy Trading

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Monday 15 December 2008

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATE



Dear Readers / Visitors / Reliance fans,

In our last update about Reliance industries on 4 December 2008, we have asked to enter the stock once it closes above 1145 lvls. Last week it has managed to close above 1145 & non stop rally was seen upto 1300 - 1325 lvls.

Today also it has crossed levels of 1350 & heading towards congestion levels of 1350 - 1400. This is the area where profit booking can come.

Source : CNBC TV 18: Also today Adavce tax nos were out & Reliance industries has given advance tax numbers at Rs 440 crore versus Rs 1045 crore (YoY). Now these two numbers are not comparable primarily because the Rs 1045 crore last year in Q3 included Rs 499 crore of tax given as Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) paid on their RPL stake sale last year. RIL had paid Rs 536 crore in MAT for RPL stake sale last year. It also included Rs 200 crore as tax deducted at source on behalf of the suppliers.

Taking all this into account, RIL has paid almost the same advance tax as last year. CNBC-TV18 sources have given this clarification; the fact that there is no sharp decline in numbers.

Other Tax nos :

The State Bank of India’s Q3 advance tax stands at Rs 1,700 crore versus Rs 1,088 crore (YoY), reports CNBC-TV18, quoting sources. HDFC’s advance tax is at Rs 279 crore versus Rs 215 crore (YoY). ICICI Bank’s Q3 advance tax is at Rs 470 crore versus Rs 500 crore (YoY).

CNBC-TV18 Disclaimer:

This information has not been provided to the stock exchanges, and is source-based.




Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Sms Services for Indian Mobile nos :

Financial Market Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Economy News & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN9

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Tuesday 9 December 2008

Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai....Poem

A beautiful poem written by a CA ……

Apni Profile ke bojh tale daba jaa raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Zindagi se hara hua hai,
Par " Balance sheet Tally " karne se haar nahi manata,
Apne excel sheet ki ek ek line ise rati hui hai,
Par aaj kaun se rang ke moje pehne hain,
ye nahi janata,
Din par din ek excel file banata ja raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Das hazaar line ki file main error dhoond lete hain lekin,
Majboor dost ki ankhon ki nami dikhayi nahi deti,
PC pe hazaar windows khuli hain,
Par dil ki khidki pe koi dastak sunayi nahi deti,
Satuday-sunday nahata nahi,
week days ko naha raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Linking karte karte pata hi nahi chala,
"Excel" ki priority kab maa-baap se high ho gayi,
Kitabon main gulab rakhne wala ,
cigerette ke dhuyen main kho gaya,
Dil ki zameen se armaanon ki vidayi ho gayi,
Weekends pe daroo peke jo jashna mana raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Maze lena ho iske to pooch lo,
"Salary Increment" ki party kab dila rahe ho,
Hansi udana ho to pooch lo,
"Leave" pe kab ja rahe ho?
Wo dekho Leave se laute team-mate ki chocolates kha raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Kharche badh rahe hain,
Baal kam ho rahe hain,
Income Tax ke sitam ho rahe hain,
Lo phir se bus choot gayi,
Auto se aa raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Pizza gale se nahi utarta,
To "Coke" ke sahare nigal liya jata hai,
Office ki "Thali" dekh munh hai bigadta,
Maa ke hath ka wo khana baar roz yaad ata hai,
"Sprout bhel" bani hai phir bhi,
free "Evening Snacks" kha raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai,

Aapne ab tak li hongi bahut si chutikiya,
Chartered Accountant ke jivan ka sach batati ye akhri kuch panktiyan,

"Hazaron ki tankhwah wala,
company ki karodon ki jeb bharta hai,
Chartered Accountant wahi ban sakta hai,
jo lohe ka jigar rakhta hai,
Hum log jee jee ke marte hain ,
zindagi hai kuch aisi,
Ek fauj ki naukri,
doosri Chartered Accountant ki ,
dono ek jaisi "

Is kavita ka har shabd mere dil ki gehrayi se aa raha hai,
Wo dekho ek Chartered Accountant ja raha hai .........

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Sms Alerts for Indian Mobile nos :

Financial Market Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Economy News,Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN9

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Monday 8 December 2008

LETTER TO INDIAN PRIME MINISTER ( Times of India, Mumbai )

Dear Mr. Prime minister

I am a typical mouse from Mumbai. In the local train compartment which has capacity of 100 persons, I travel with 500 more mouse. Mouse at least squeak but we don't even do that.

Today I heard your speech. In which you said 'NO BODY WOULD BE SPARED'. I would like to remind you that fourteen years has passed since serial bomb blast in Mumbai took place. Dawood was the main conspirator. Till today he is not caught. All our bolywood actors, our builders, our Gutka king meets him but your Government can not catch him. Reason is simple; all your ministers are hand in glove with him. If any attempt is made to catch him everybody will be exposed. Your statement 'NOBODY WOULD BE SPARED' is nothing but a cruel joke on this unfortunate people of India.

Enough is enough. As such after seeing terrorist attack carried out by about a dozen young boys I realize that if same thing continues days are not away when terrorist will attack by air, destroy our nuclear reactor and there will be one more Hiroshima.

We the people are left with only one mantra. Womb to Bomb to Tomb. You promised Mumbaikar Shanghai what you have given us is Jalianwala Baug.

Today only your home minister resigned. What took you so long to kick out this joker? Only reason was that he was loyal to Gandhi family. Loyalty to Gandhi family is more important than blood of innocent people, isn't it?

I am born and bought up in Mumbai for last fifty eight years. Believe me corruption in Maharashtra is worse than that in Bihar. Look at all the politician, Sharad Pawar, Chagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane, Bal Thackray , Gopinath Munde, Raj Thackray, Vilasrao Deshmukh all are rolling in money. Vilasrao Deshmukh is one of the worst Chief minister I have seen. His only business is to increase the FSI every other day, make money and send it to Delhi so Congress can fight next election. Now the clown has found new way and will increase FSI for fisherman so they can build concrete house right on sea shore. Next time terrorist can comfortably live in those house , enjoy the beauty of sea and then attack the Mumbai at their will.

Recently I had to purchase house in Mumbai. I met about two dozen builders. Everybody wanted about 30% in black. A common person like me knows this and with all your intelligent agency & CBI you and your finance minister are not aware of it. Where all the black money goes? To the underworld isn't it? Our politicians take help of these goondas to vacate people by force. I myself was victim of it. If you have time please come to me, I will tell you everything.

If this has been land of fools, idiots then I would not have ever cared to write you this letter. Just see the tragedy, on one side we are reaching moon, people are so intelligent and on other side you politician has converted nectar into deadly poison. I am everything Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Schedule caste, OBC, Muslim OBC, Christian Schedule caste, Creamy Schedule caste only what I am not is INDIAN. You politician have raped every part of mother India by your policy of divide and rule.

Take example of former president Abdul Kalam. Such a intelligent person, such a fine human being. You politician didn't even spare him. Your party along with opposition joined the hands, because politician feels they are supreme and there is no place for good person.

Dear Mr Prime minister you are one of the most intelligent person, most learned person. Just wake up, be a real SARDAR. First and foremost expose all selfish politician. Ask Swiss bank to give name of all Indian account holder. Give reins of CBI to independent agency. Let them find wolf among us. There will be political upheaval but that will better than dance of death which we are witnessing every day. Just give us ambient where we can work honestly and without fear. Let there be rule of law. Everything else will be taken care of.

Choice is yours Mr. Prime Minister. Do you want to be lead by one person or you want to lead the nation of 100 Crore people?

PLEASE READ N PASS ON THIS LINK TO MAX. PEOPLE IN YOUR CONTACT LIST

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Sms Services for Indian Mobile nos :

Stock Market Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Stcok Market News & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN9

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Thursday 4 December 2008

TRENDLINE OR LIFELINE ? Reliance inds & Nifty


Hello Readers / Visitors,

Updating here charts of Reliance industries ( King of the Ring ) & Nifty EOD ( End of day ) 4th December,2008.

Both charts have similar patterns,Trendline support acted as life line in the short run & bounced back sharply from that levels. As updated in Previous posts on this web it was clearly written that if Reliance inds manages to close above 1145 lvls then we can short term break out in the stock.

RIL abv 1145 can test 1165, 1185, 1210 levels & close abv 1210 can take stock to 1300+ levels, supports are at 1125, 1095, 1050, 1025.

Nifty too managed to sustain above 2650 & infact managed to close above that which gave some +ve signals in short term & also the same trendline support pushed the Nifty up & crosses resistance levels of 2730 & 2790. Next immediate resistance is 2850 & any close above this can give good directional moves.

Today market opened on flat note but slowly it has started gathering mometum in early hours of trade,markets are expecting positive news from RBI like rate cuts & some stimulas package from Government, in this anticipation huge short covering was seen in stocks like Reality, Auto, Metals, Capital goods, Banking & over all market breath was positive.


Today trading call was given to our group members by sms, check the same in this link

http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN


Not much time to update as leaving for some work out of Bombay.


Good day

Happy Trading & Investing



Regards,

Allies Financial Services


Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Wednesday 3 December 2008

REVISION IN LOT SIZE

Hello Readers / Visitors,


There has been revision in lot size in Derivatives segment, to get the list chk out this link :

http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin/browse_thread/thread/87f264fe462cd366




Regards,

Allies Financial Services


Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Wednesday 26 November 2008

RELIANCE TRIANGLE FORMATION


Hello Readers / Visitors / Reliance Fans,


We are updating Reliance industries ltd (500325) End of Day chart (EOD) during live markets when the scrip is trading around 1090 lvls, today Open 1075 High 1112 Low 1058 Yesterdays close 1072.

The charts has formed a triangle on daily basis which indicates that if Reliance managed to close above 1145 for 2 to 3 days then we can see 1200 - 1300 lvls. But if the stock manages to close below 1025 levels then we can stock testing previous lows.

Markets on intra day basis are trading very choppy in narrow range b4 expiry of November month futures, Ril being the leader in the pack can help markets move either ways due to its heavy weightage in Index.


Stock specific trading news & levels only to PREMIUM CLIENTS.

Market news by sms, register your mobile nos on this website in both groups for Financial markets.



Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Tuesday 25 November 2008

Reliance to reopen petrol pumps soon

New Delhi : Reliance Industries, Indias largest private sector oil company that shut down all of its petrol pumps earlier this year because of huge losses, wants to restart selling petrol and diesel after margins on the two fuels turned positive.

"Reliance has informed us that they are keen on reopening their outlets," Petroleum Secretary R S Pandey told reporters here.

The Mukesh Ambani-run company had shut all of its 1,432 petrol pumps around March after it could not compete with public sector companies, who sold fuel at rates much lower than their cost, as they got government subsidies.

However, with the fall in international oil prices, margins on both petrol and diesel have turned positive. State-run oil companies Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are making a neat profit of Rs 9.86 a litre on petrol and Rs 0.70 per litre on diesel.

Essar Oil, the second-largest private fuel retailer in the country, had begun reopening its petrol pumps when international crude oil prices started declining in September.

Pandey said Essar had written to him informing that 500 pumps have resumed operations. It plans to open most of its 1,250 fuel stations by the end of December.

The company began reactivating most of its outlets in southern and western India from August and would double its retail network by the end of December, taking it to 1,250 by January 2009. Rapidly plunging crude oil prices has made it viable for the three private retailers - Reliance Industries, Essar Oil and Shell - to get back in the retail market. The private firms can now even offer fuel at lower prices, compared to their state-owned rivals.

In 2002,the Government had awarded fuel retailing rights to companies that had invested Rs 2,000 crore in petroleum infrastructure in India. Besides Reliance, Essar and Shell, Cairn India and Numaligarh Refinery were eligible to set up petrol and diesel retail outlets.

Reliance had applied for permission to set up 5,849 petrol pumps, while Essar sought approval for 1,700 outlets. Shell had obtained permission for 2,000 pumps. State-run firms operate 34,304 pumps in the country.

When crude oil prices climbed and the difference between domestic retail price and cost of product widened to some Rs 23-24 a litre, Reliance shut all its outlets, while Essar restricted sales to just a 100 of its outlets. Shell, which had about 50 stations, had reviewed its expansion plans in India and decided not to open any more petroleum outlets.

With the price of crude having fallen to USD 50 and with the government not reducing retail prices of petrol and diesel, the private retailers want to reopen their petrol stations.

Source : PTI

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Monday 24 November 2008

CHANGE IN TRADING GROUP OF SCRIPS

Hello Readers/Visitors,

Get the list of scrips whose trading group has been changed, click on this link or copy this link & paste in ur address bar of IE

http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin/


Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Sms Alerts for Indian Mobile nos :

Stock Market Alerts & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Stock Market News & other info : http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN9

** Foregin Nationals can check out this links for regular updates **

Saturday 22 November 2008

INSPIRATIONAL : MR.WARREN BUFFET

Summary By Some Gentleman who attended the meet.
_________________________________________________________________
I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha, Nebraska a few weeks back.

It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!

The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!

I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.

Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totaling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.

The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, Pl read on.

================

What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?

Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.

When do you deicide to invest in a firm?

The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)

What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?

I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people evenafter selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.

Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?

Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.

When do you plan to retire?

I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!

Why do stock market crashes happen?

Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were beinggiven away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."

What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?

I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Do you still hate Technology stocks?

With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies,how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you arespeculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."

How to think about Investing?

The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to saywhen you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."

How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation?

You are a hero to us! I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?

What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?

I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have beenobserving the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.

Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street, New York?

Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.

You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.

My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. Iam lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.

People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?

I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all thepeople all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.

I am a small time businessman from Dallas, Texas, what do I need to do to hit big time?

Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans atdifferent stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.

I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?

My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.

Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.

What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?

Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.

You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?

I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decidedthat they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of disciplineand focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all thesewonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.

It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-"A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".

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Friday 21 November 2008

NIFTY EOD ( End of Day ) Chart

Hello Readers/Visitors,

Today was a great day for bulls, markets were highly volatile since morning then tested our break out zone of spot nifty 2650 but then gave up in after noon.

Intra day Nifty took support at 2550 lvls but our support was 2525 & again bounced sharply in the late afternoon trade, crossed 2650 lvls with volumes & made high of 2718 on intra day basis.

Nifty managed to averaged out close at 2693 lvls keeping both Nifty Nov futures & Nifty Dec futures at high premiums. Some short covering seen too & also markets are waiting for some announcements from Govt / RBI on Rate cuts.

2 Days back charts updated which indicated some bullish patterns but asked to wait for few days for clear signals. Early morning we have updated to sms members abt this buy lvls. You can check the same on this website www.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

You can also regiester your Indian mobile nos 4 such messages on this website only, follow instructions there.

Today again we entered RELIANCE INDUSTRIES abv 1090 lvls as positional call with stop loss 1060 for target 1200-1250, in intraday only it made high of Rs 1158, refer charts in our previous posts on this web.

WE OFFER PREMIUM CALL SERVICES TO CLIENTS, FOR INQUIRY CALL US, MORE PACKAGE & SUBSCRIPTION DETAILS ON THIS WEBSITE.

Please dont forget to read out disclosures & disclaimers on the lower end of this website.

Good day, HAPPY TRADING & INVESTING........


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Wednesday 19 November 2008

SENSEX EOD

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Updating second chart for the day of Sensex, markets gave the rally in the mid afternoon. Anyways today markets have filled an important gap at 8740 levels & formed inverted hammer on daily EOD basis.

This is some BULLISH signs for markets in short term, when ever markets fills up any gap then we can see some bounce & also hammer pattern suggests that. But we need to wait for few days for clear direction.

Reliance industries call gave returns in range of 7 to 10%. Today Banking,Metals,Engineering stocks gave up early gains in the mid afternoon. Also telecom stocks were under pressure while Auto,Pharma & Fmcg stocks gained.

Pull back expected in days to come so lets hope for the best.



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RELIANCE BUY CALL AT 1120

Hello Readers/Visitors,

Yesterday on 18 November,2008 we have buy call on Reliance industries around 1100-1120 lvls to our members by sms, chk out this links where call has been given :

1. http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/alliesfin9

2. http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/alliesfin

Chart has been updated indicating that why we have given technical buy call on Reliance industries with stop loss & target.

Indian nationals can register for our free of cost SMS services on this website only, so that you can get the same updates by sms on your mobile while you are away from the desk.

For more details about our PREMIUM SERVICES feel free to call us on +91 9820 191219 & for Technical assistance while joining our group then call us on +91 98699 58999

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Tuesday 18 November 2008

40 TIPS FOR BETTER LIFE

1. Take a 10-30 minutes walk every day. And while you walk, smile.
2. Sit in silence for at least 10 minutes each day.
3. Sleep for at least 7 hours.
4. Live with the 3 E's -- Energy, Enthusiasm, and Empathy.
5. Play more games..
6. Read more books than you did last year.
7. Make time to practice meditation, yoga, and prayer. They provide us with daily fuel for our busy lives.
8. Spend time with people over the age of 70 & under the age of 6.
9. Dream more while you are awake.
10. Eat more foods that grow on trees and plants and eat less food that is manufactured in plants. 11. Drink plenty of water.
12. Try to make at least three people smile each day.
13. Don't waste your precious energy on gossip.
14. Forget issues of the past. Don't remind your partner with his / her mistakes of the past. That will ruin your present happiness.
15. Don't have negative thoughts or things you cannot control. Instead invest your energy in the positive present moment.
16. Realize that life is a school and you are here to learn. Problems are simply part of the curriculum that appear and fade away like algebra class but the lessons you learn will last a lifetime.
17. Eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince and dinner like a beggar.
18. Smile and laugh more.
19. Life is too short to waste time hating anyone. Don't hate others.
20. Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
21. You don't have to win every argument. Agree to disagree.
22. Make peace with your past so it won't spoil the present.
23. Don't compare your life to others'. You have no idea what their journey is all about. D on't compare your partner with others'.
24. No one is in charge of your happiness except you.
25. Forgive every one for every thing.
26. What other people think of you is none of your business.
27. GOD heals everything.
28. However good or bad a situation is -- it will change.
29. Your job won't take care of you when you are sick. Friends will, Stay in touch. . .
30. Get rid of anything that isn't useful, beautiful or joyful.
31. Envy is a waste of time. You already have all you need.
32. The best is yet to come.
33. No matter how you feel, get up, dress up and show up.
34. Do the right thing ! 3
5. Call your family often.
36. Your Inner most is always happy. So, be happy.
37. Each day give something good to others.
38. Don't over do. Keep your limits.
39. When you awake alive in the morning, thank GOD for it.
40. Please Forward this to everyone you care about.

TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF & YOUR LOVED ONES........

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MIND MANAGEMENT

Programme Yourself For Mind Management – Swami Sukhabodhananda

In every difficulty there is an opportunity. Life is really a choice... to be either wise, not wise or otherwise.

A wise king wanted advice about what to do when he faced a real crisis in his life. He met his master. The master gave him a locket and told him to open it only when he was in difficulty. After some years he was defeated in a battle and he lost his kingdom.

He was worried and was hiding in a cave. He suddenly remembered what his master had told him. He opened the locket and there he found a note, "even this will pass", and a second note which said, "if one door closes another door opens". He gained strength from this piece of advice and after a month won his kingdom back. He went to his master and thanked him and asked a question: "Why does the door close?" "The door is always open, your mind is closed," replied the master.

There are two types of worlds we live in. The visible world and the invisible world. The outer world and the inner world. Our body is in this outer space but our mind is in another space. Just as our body gets dirty if one is in a dirty space our inner self, our mind, gets dirty if we visit dirty areas in the inner world. If one broods over worry, dislike, anger, jealousy, then our mind is polluted. With such pollution you find the outer world a pain. The real pain is when our mind lives in negativity.

What type of world are we in? This is what one should really be aware of. Where are we placed psychologically is what we have to watch for. One believes that the outer world is the real world and not the inner world of mind.

For example, you are very happy that you are invited to a party where celebrities are attending. Then you see them beautifully dressed. You may feel bad that you are not as rich as they are, you may feel bad that you are not a celebrity. Now tell me, what has impacted your life directly... the outer world or the inner world. The inner world, is it not? So watch that very carefully in your life.

When you don't watch the mind, what happens? A negative system is created. When you dwell on the negative, your pattern of anger, your pattern of justifying, your pattern of jealousy, creates a negative system. Then the negative system takes over and you lose control of yourself. It is as though you have installed a programme in your computer and when you open the computer, that particular programme opens up. Then you get angry with the computer. What you have to realise is that it is not the computer that is the source of the problem, it is how you have programmed it, is the problem.

Each time you are negative, watch how you have programmed yourself. When the world outside is singing and dancing, in the morning sunrise and evening sunset, in the twinkling of the stars and the dancing wind, you feel negative and sick... for it is like mixing bread with mud. Hence don't create a negative system around you.

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Sunday 9 November 2008

A HIGHLY GOOD PRESENTATION OF THOUGHTS

Hello,

Chk out this link

http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin/browse_thread/thread/683623ede6d4c5e7


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Wednesday 5 November 2008

Obama's views on India

Democrat Barack Obama , who was elected as the 44th President of the United States, is known to be an admirer of world's largest democracy as well as father of the nation Mahatma Gandhi : Following are excerpts of some of his quotations:

On present Indo-US ties: "With India, America has one of its most important relationships in an uncertain world...both countries, India and America, are working to protect their people and values of 21st century threats while at the same time respecting the rule of law and cultural pluralism."

On Indo-US ties under an Obama Administration: "I will move forward to build a close strategic partnership between the US and India when I am president of the United States."

On shared Indo-US democratic values: "The world's oldest democracy and the world's largest democracy are natural partners, sharing important interests and fundamental democratic values."

On terrorism, India and the US: "Both countries have been victims of catastrophic terrorist attacks and we have a shared interest in succeeding in the fight against al-Qaeda and its operational and ideological affiliates."

On Mahatma Gandhi: "In my life, I have always looked to Mahatma Gandhi as an inspiration, because he embodies the kind of transformational change that can be made when ordinary people come together to do extraordinary things. Gandhi's significance is universal. Countless people around the world have been touched by his spirit and example."

On the Indo-US nuclear deal: "I voted for the US-India nuclear agreement because India is a strong democracy and a natural strategic partner for the US in the 21st century."

On Kashmir: "We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they (Pakistan) can stay focussed not on India, but on the situation with those militants."

On Chandrayaan-I: "With India's launch of its first unmanned lunar spacecraft following closely on the heels of China's first spacewalk, we are reminded just how urgently the United States must revitalise its space programme if we are to remain the undisputed leader in space, science, and technology."



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Monday 27 October 2008

A letter from a bruised bull to the "expert" analyst

My dear Analyst,

I have been a great follower of yours. Each day I used to rise with what you were speaking from Tokyo and went to bed with what you were preaching from New York. I bought when you told me to and sold when you scared me to. During the NASDAQ run I made a few multibaggers but then lost all of it. You would remember how you scolded me for not having applied stop losses . That was after the stocks went below those levels. But I continued to believe in you and your community. I made money in banking, sugar and construction, lost a few here and there. On the whole I did not do better then what I could have managed myself but still I enjoyed each moment of it. In June I lost quite a fortune on your Sterlite and Hindustan Zinc call. That was because the LME prices fell and I was taken off guard. As usual you rebuked me for not having put in stop losses.

During the current carnage when the index fell to 8800 one particular member from your community stormed the TV channels from Hong Kong and preached gloom, boom and doom. The local ones told me to stay away till the dust gets settled. Again I obliged and cut all my long positions converting them for cash. I booked profits in all the counters that I had got in early. This was because you advised me to take the profits home. For the losers you advised that there is no point selling at these levels and as it always happens I listened.
Investors wishing to save themselves from the bloom gloom and doom were advised me to go on a long holiday. I could not go on that holiday since it would have cost money. Another member from your community asked me to keep 30% in cash, a few told me to wait for the US interest rate cues while the others were preparing for a US led global recession and urged gulliable investors like me to buy gold and silver. Theysaid that these would be the saviors .
At an index level of 8800 the largest fund house from the land of the rising sun talked about an index level of 7000 above which they would not invest. Does any one know what they did after making that statement?

  • When ever I asked you something you were uncomfortable in responding you called it momentum and I thought that these stocks were for the greedy. But after having suffered because of my shortcomings (in not being able to understand you correctly) I have a few questions:

    1) Doctors, engineers, accountants do pass some examinations before being called experts. They undergo rigorous training and then only they are allowed to advise. DO you along with members of your community undergo the same test before advising millions of fools like me on TV.

    2) Do you ever look back and see how many of your recommendations went right and how many went wrong. If so how so if not why not?

    3) Do you ever feel guilty either morally or ethically when investors lose money on your recommendations.

    4) You have a habit of using vague words like:
    n Buy on declines
    n Should give you 20% return . Whether the stock is at Rs 700 or Rs 850 you talk of the same 20% returns.
    n Cautious optimism.
    n Apply strict stop losses – Please name me one person who has made money by applying strict stop losses except the person who sells subscription for such advice.
    n Momentum investing – If buying on a break out and selling on stop losses is not momentum investing then what is? Yet you prefer to talk of stocks that you do not understand as momentum investing.

    5) Most of the time your analysis is historic. You say this stock has made a 52 week high at so and so and then retraced itself to so and so and now is trading at so and so. You know the introduction that takes 70% of you analysis does not help me. I can see it in the pink papers and that costs Rs 2.00 only.

    6) I am tired of hearing words like supports, resistances, 200 day moving averages, Fibonacci, retrenchments RSI's etc

    7) Each day you looked at the NASDAQ and the Nikkei and told us where we would go. Over the last 5 years the NASDAQ has gone no where but we have gone up by more then 4 times. Do you remember the critical days when you went wrong?

    8) When stocks fell you blamed sentiment when they went up you said liquidity. Why can't you tell us before hand as to what will happen? Otherwise there is no difference between you and me.

    Yours Truly

    "The small investor"

    A bruised battered and mauled Bull


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HAPPY DIWALI






Dear Readers / Visitors,



Wishing you & your family a Very Happy Diwali & A Prosperous New Year from TEAM, ALLIES FINANCIAL SERVICES, Mumbai, India






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Monday 20 October 2008

Rapid Fire Round $ Stock Markets

Rapid-fire to a Stockbroker

Sensex ------ Senseless

Nifty ------ Baseless

Investors ------ Wealth less

Trader/Dealer ------ Clueless

Mutulfunds ------ Cashless

FIIs. ------- Shameless

Cash -------- Find-less

Analyst -------- Mindless

Inflation ---------- Topless

R B I -------- Helpless

Blue chips ------- 50% less

Midcaps ------- 75% less

Small caps ------ 90% less

Bears ---------- Fearless

Bulls -------- Sleepless

Loss -------- Not at all less

Promoters ------- Restless

Finance Minister -------- Emotionless

Economy ---------- Context less

Food -------- Eat less / Tasteless. Maybe Food less

Fresher --------- Jobless

AND A STOCK BROKER IS NOTHING LESS OF ABOVE ALL.

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GUJJU BLOOD

Today's Joke: The Arab Story
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
An Arab was admitted in the Lilavati Hospital at Mumbai for a heart transplant, but prior to the surgery the doctors needed to store his blood in case need arises. As the gentleman had a rare type of blood, it couldn't be found locally. So the call went out to the neighboring states.

Finally a Gujarati was located who had a similar type of blood. The Gujarati willingly donated his blood for the Arab and the surgery went through.After the surgery, the Arab sent the Gujarati as appreciation for giving his blood, a new BMW, diamonds, jewelry, and half a million US dollars.

Once again the Arab had to go through a corrective surgery. His doctor telephoned the Gujarati who was more than happy to donate his blood again.After the second surgery, the Arab sent the Gujarati a thank you card and a box of almond halwa (sweets).

The Gujarati was shocked to see that the Arab this time did not reciprocate the Gujarati's kind gesture as he had anticipated.He phoned the Arab and asked him "This time also I thought that you would give me some thing like a Toyota Prado, Diamonds and Jewelry. But you gave only a card and a box of almond sweets.

To this the Arab replied "Can't help it, Bapu..... Now I have Gujju blood in my veins!!"


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New York Times Article by Warren Buffet

New York Times-October 17, 2008

Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT

Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: "Put your mouth where your money was." Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.


Regards,

Allies Financial Services


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Thursday 16 October 2008

NEW STOCK MARKET TERMS

CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance,
the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use


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Allies Financial Services


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Wednesday 15 October 2008

WALL - MART STREET

Hello,

Heard the latest .

'What an economy ...... the other day i wrote a cheque, the cheque was good, but the bank bounced!!!

'how do u take out 1million from the stock market.... by putting 5 million in it.

What worries me most about the credit crunch ... is that if one of my cheques is returned stamped - Insufficient Funds... i wont know if that is in my account or the Bank's!!!

Auditor's one line comment on Lehman's Balance Sheet.... on the left side (liabilities) nothing is right & on the Right side (Assets) nothing is left!!!!!

'I want to warn people from Nigeria who might be watching our show, if youget any e-mails from Washington asking for money, it's a scam. Don't fall for it' -

'Do you have any idea how cheap stocks are now? Wall Street is now beingcalled Wal-Mart Street' -

The difference between MOST pigeons and MOST investment banker? ALL pigeonscan still make a deposit on a BMW

Q: What's the difference between a guy who just lost everything in Vegas andan investment banker? A: A tie

What does AIG stand for? American Innocence and Greed.... or Am I Gone!!!I went to buy a toaster and it came with a bank.

Finally old wine in a new bottle....
---------------------------------------------
'A new teacher was getting to know the kids by asking them their name and what their father did for a living.
The first little girl said: 'My name is Mary and my Daddy is a postman.
'The next child, a little boy said: 'I'm Andy and my Dad is a mechanic.
'And so it went until one little boy said: 'My name is Johnny and my father is a striptease artist in a gay club.
'The teacher gasped and quickly changed the subject.
Later, in the school yard, the teacher approached Little Johnny privately and asked if it was really true that his dad danced nude in a gay bar.
Little Johnny blushed and said, 'No, he's really a Business Development Director at Lehman Brothers, but I'm just too embarrassed to tell anyone.'


Regards,

Allies Financial Services


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Monday 13 October 2008

Warren Buffett's Reassuring Words On the Future

Hello,

As the stock market's wild moves downward have average investor worried about their financial futures & looking for leadership, it's important to keep Warren Buffett's reassuring words about the long-run in mind. Here's what he said live on CNBC just a few weeks ago:

"You know, five years from now, ten years from now, we'll look back on this period and we'll see that you could have made some extraordinary (stock market) buys. That doesn't mean it won't get more extraordinary a week or a month from now. I have no idea what the stock market is going to do next month or six months from now. I do know that the American economy, over a period of time, will do very well, and people who own a piece of it will do well."

Just don't borrow money to buy your piece.

Warren Buffett's Three Rules for Investing In a Crisis

1. "Cash combined with courage in a crisis is priceless"

2. "Dont invest in things you don't understand"

3. "Don't try to catch a falling knife until you have a handle on the risk"


Regards,

Allies Financial Services

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GAP Theory explained

Hello,



In our Previous post we have talked about gap in markets & we told that market have gap at 10200 & 9500 lvls & markets can test these levels in days to come.

There is basic thing in Gap theory that whatever gaps are made on charts on daily basis, markets irrespective of moving up or down have to come to those levels to fill the gap. Once Gap is achieved then markets tend to bounce by 5 to 10% on daily basis as it happened when Gaps were filled at 14500 & 12500 lvls.

So we have achieved 10200 on Sensex charts & as per our theory markets to test 11200 & 11500 lvls.

Markets know more better whats happening.





Regards,

Allies Financial Services

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Saturday 11 October 2008

Worst weekly performance for Sensex, Nifty ever

Hello,

It's been the worst weekly performance for the markets. Today, the markets were very close to hitting the 10% circuit filter twice in the session, but pulled back off those lows. At one point, the Sensex was down over 1,000 points. The Reserve Bank was quick to step in with a 150 bps CRR cut, which includes a 50 CRR cut on October 6. But lower August Industrial Productivity numbers at 1.3% versus 10.9% YoY added to the pall of gloom. Even a lower inflation number at 11.80% and reassuring statements from Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Sebi Chairman CB Bhave failed to lift sentiment. The Nifty finally closed at 3,280 down 234 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 10,528 down 800 points.
Metal, realty, capital goods, power, banking, and oil stocks were hammered severely. Midcap and smallcap stocks also took a huge beating.

At various points in the course of trade it seemed that like the Sensex would hit the lower circuit, but fortunately, it did not hit. The lower circuit for Sensex was fixed at 1,275 points while that for the Nifty was at 390 points. The Sensex tumbled 1,088.6 points and the Nifty fell 314.7 points in intraday trade to hit a low of 10,239.76 and 3198.95, respectively.

The Sensex closed with a loss of 800.51 points, or 7.07%, at 10,527.85. The Nifty lost 233.7 points, or 6.65%, to settle at 3,279.95. The BSE Midcap slipped 334.48 points, or 8.34%, at 3,676 and the Smallcap index was down by 343.74 points, or 7.31%, at 4,355.45.

The total market cap as on October 10 was Rs 3,401,515.26 crore as against Rs 3,652,581.27 crore on October 8, a net erosion of Rs 251,066.01 crore.

In the F&O segment, Nifty futures added 36 lakh shares in Open Interest and ended at a premium of nearly 23 points on back of cash based selling. Aggressive short build up was seen in private banking stocks. Metal, infrastructure, telecom and Oil & Gas stocks continued to see short build up. Nifty PCR slipped to 0.74 in today's trade.

This has been the worst weekly performance for the Sensex and Nifty ever. The Sensex ended down by 15.5% or 1950 points and the Nifty closed down by 14% or 550 points at day's low. All sectoral indices fell over 10% this week; BSE Metal and Capital Goods indices were down over 20%. Among the heavyweights, Reliance Industries was down 13%, ONGC down 10% and Bharti Airtel down 9%. Among the index losers, Suzlon tumbled 36% followed by Reliance

Infrastructure and Reliance Communication, which fell 30% each.

The August Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers came in at 1.3% versus 10.9% year-on-year (YoY), which was much lower than CNBC-TV18 expectations of 5.79%. Manufacturing growth for August stood at 1.1% versus 10.7% YoY, and the consumer durables growth for the period has come in at 5.1% against 6.2%. Capital Goods growth was at 2.3% versus 30.8% and Mining growth declined to 4% from 14.7%.

M Govinda Rao, Director of National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and member of Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister, admits that we are in an industrial recession given the IIP numbers that came in.

Rao, however, feels that a 7% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is still within reach, "for the next year though, we are going to have a much more serious problem," he said.
However, RBI has taken initiative to increase liquidity in the system. Central Bank has cut CRR by 150 bps to 7.5% (including earlier announced 50 bps) with effect from October 11, which will inject around Rs 60,000 crore in the banking system. Bankers feel that this is good news from RBI.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the 150 bps CRR cut will infuse Rs 60,000 crore into the system. "In about 10-12 days, substantial liquidity will be infused. However, further steps are required to infuse liquidity into the market. We recognise that flow of credit smoothly is vital to the system," he said. According to Chidambaram, banks are well capitalised and regulated.

"Deposits are safe, so there is no need to worry about deposits."

He said it is difficult to talk about the impact on broader economy. "We are confident that our economy will continue to grow."

Chanda Kochhar, Joint MD and CFO, ICICI Bank said, "The CRR cut announced by RBI today is very welcome and a needed step in terms of rupee depreciation. I think this should have a cooling effect on the call money and the inter-bank borrowing rates that have been prevailing in the recent past."

Inflation for the week ended September 27 has fallen to 11.80% as against 11.99% in previous week.

On the global front, it was a worst session across the globe due to fear of Morgan Stanley going belly up, which was down 25% on Thursday. Moody's put Morgan Stanley long-term credit ratings on review for a possible downgrade. Hedge fund is facing redemption to the tune of 40-50% of net asset.

Asian markets like Nikkei lost 9.62%. Straits Times and Hang Seng closed down over 7%. Kospi fell 4.13% and Shanghai fell 3.57%. Taiwan market was shut today.

European markets were trading sharply lower due to bad cues from the US markets. FTSE, CAC and DAX were down by 8-9%, at 4:22 pm.

This has been terrible week for the global markets as well. Asian, US and European markets dropped 12-25%, 15-17% and 13-15%, respectively. Nikkei, Russian and Romania markets hit lower circuits this week. Sensex was 0.5% away from 10% lower circuit.

Coordinated global rate cut announcement made this week, which also did not stop markets from falling. Asian currencies declined 10-15% this week against dollar. Yen breached 100 to a dollar mark this week.

G7 meetings will be held today and tomorrow in Washington to discuss the financial turmoil. US government could guarantee bank deposits.

Dow Jones Futures was down 222 points and Nasdaq Futures fell 22.5 points.

Back to our markets, Reliance Communication, ICICI Bank, Reliance Infrastructure, Jaiprakash Associates, Tata Steel and Suzlon Energy fell 15-21%.

However, there were only two gainers on the Sensex and Nifty. Ranbaxy Labs gained 4.71% and SBI rose 2.27%.

Market breadth was pathetic; about 549 shares have advanced while 2432 shares have declined. About 202 shares remained unchanged.

Total turnover traded was very low, it stood at Rs 68,100.82 crore. This includes Rs 14,727.85 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 48,279 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5,093.97 crore from BSE cash segment.

BSE Realty Index underperformed other indices; tumbled 321.27 points or 11.30%, to close at 2,523.07. Indiabulls Real, HDIL, Mahindra Life, Peninsula Land and Anant Raj Inds fell 15-19.5%. Unitech lost 12.38% and DLF fell 8.79%.

Sectoral Indices

Index
Current Value
Change (%)

REALTY
2523.07
-11.3

METAL
6542.57
-9.25

CG
7983.04
-9.22

POWER
1855.04
-8.8

BANKEX
5319.5
-7.84

OIL&GAS
7272.31
-6.72

AUTO
3255.68
-5.43

FMCG
1860.55
-4.46

IT
2584.25
-4.33

HC
3213.28
-3.92

Metal Index ended at 6,542.57, down 666.89 points or 9.25%. Welspun Gujarat, Gujarat NRE Coke, JindalStainless and Tata Steel tumbled 15-22%. Hindalco, Jindal Saw, Bhushan, Sesa Goa and SAIL fell 6.5-11%.

Capital Goods Index was down by 810.33 points or 9.22%, to settle at 7,983.04. Elecon Engg, Jyoti Structure, Punj Lloyd, Areva T&D, Alstom Projects, Crompton Greaves and Havells India fell 11-20%. Siemens, BEML, BHEL and L&T fell 8-10%.

Power Index fell 179.04 points or 8.8%, to settle at 1,855.04. Reliance Infrastructure, Suzlon Energy, GMR Infra and CESC went down 13.5-20%. Reliance Power and Torrent Power fell 9-10%.

BSE Bankex plunged 452.77 points or 7.84% at 5,319.50. Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank fell 11-21%. Karnataka Bank, IDBI Bank, PNB and HDFC Bank lost over 5-6%.
ICICI Bank was down 27.96% at one point of day but managed to close at 364.10, down Rs 89.4, or 19.71% after clarification from the bank and some buying at lower levels.

Chanda Kochhar, Joint MD and CFO, ICICI Bank, said the bank has adequate rupee and global liquidity of Rs 12,000 crore. "We have no international investments, only loans on our balance sheet. We do not use rupee liquidity to fund global activities."

Kochhar said the bank has not seen a scale-down in deposit growths. "The focus this year is on current and savings accounts." According to her, the bank has not seen an increase in NPAs, or Non Performing Assets, as the corporate sector is holding up. "About 90% of total loans are India related."

Commenting on the banks' UK operations, Kochhar said exposures in the market there are very small given our size and profitability. "NPAs at 0% in UK subsidiary. Over 90% of investment in
UK market are to companies with atleast 'A' rating."

Telecom stocks Reliance Communication lost 21.02%, MTNL -10.80%, Tata Communication -8.97%, Bharti Airtel -5.68% and Idea Cellular -3.04%.

Oil & Gas Index slipped 524.15 points or 6.72% at 7,272.31. Essar Oil and Cairn India fell 11-13%. HPCL, Reliance Inds, GAIL, Reliance Petroleum and ONGC lost 5-8%.

Auto stocks also lost the road. Amtek Auto fell 23.68%. Ashok Leyland, Hero Honda, M&M,
Exide Industries, Bharat Forge and Tata Motors were other losers. Index lost 186.98 points or 5.43% to 3,255.68.

FMCG Index was down by 86.78 points or 4.46%, to settle at 1,860.55. United Spirits, United Breweries, Dabur India, Tata Tea, Marico, GlaxoSmith Consumer and HUL were major losers.

IT Index fell 116.98 points or 4.33%, to close at 2,584.25. NIIT, Mphasis, Tech Mahindra, Patni Computer, Financial Tech and Oracle Financial fell 10-16%. HCL Tech, Wipro, Satyam and TCS were also losers.

Infosys Technologies has reported good numbers; it reported consolidated net profit of Rs 1,432 crore versus Rs 1,302 crore, a jump of 10% quarter-on-quarter and net sales of Rs 5,418 crore versus Rs 4,854 crore. However, the company has lowered its FY09 guidance; it is expecting FY09 EPS at USD 2.24/ADR, revised down from earlier USD 2.32/ADR and consolidated revenues are seen at USD 4.72-4.81 billion, revised down from USD 4.97-5.05 billion. Due to which, the stock was down over 11% at one point of the day. It closed at 1,226.70, down Rs 27.65, or 2.2% on the BSE.

S Gopalakrishnan, CEO & MD of Infosys said, "If one looks at constant currency terms our guidance for the year actually comes down to 16-18%, 3% drop becuase of the currency movement. Almost all the currencies against dollar have actually depreciated and that has had a impact, thats why 16-18%. Then when we look at what all has happened in the 4 weeks trial it is prudent to be cautious and that's why we have revised the guidance down to 13.1-15.2%.

The Indian Rupee has depreciated upto 49.16 to a dollar in early trade. It was trading at around 48.475 to a dollar.

Healthcare Index plunged 131.09 points or 3.92% to 3,213.28. Sun Pharma Advanced, Lupin, Bilcare, Opto Circuits and Dishman Pharma tumbled 10-17%.

Among the midcap stocks, India Infoline, Nagarjuna Construction, Amtek Auto, Bajaj Hindustan, Welspun Gujarat and Yes Bank fell 20-25%.

In the small cap space, Glodyne Techno, Sanghvi Movers, Sparsh BPO Svcs, Diamond Cables and ETC Networks slipped 20%.

Worldwide Wipeout:

Asian Markets ends in Deep Red : Hangseng dn 7.1%, Kospi dn 4.1%, Nikkei 225 dn 9.6%, Strait Times dn 7.3%

Carnage on Dalal Street continues

Sensex hits a new 2008 low of 10239.7; Nifty hits a new 2008 low of 3198.9

Worst weekly performance for sensex & Nifty ever; Sensex ends down 15.5% or 1950 points and nifty ends down 14% or 550 points for the week

Sensex ends down 800 points to close at 10527; Nifty ends down 233 points to close at 3279
CNX Midcap Index down 7%, BSE Small-cap Index down 7.3%

Bse Realty Index dn 11.3%, Dlf dn 8.7%, Unitch dn 12.1%, Akruti city 7.2%, Hdil dn 18.8%, Ib Real Estate dn 19.4%

Bse Metal Index dn 9.2%; Tata Steel dn 15%, Hindalco dn 11%, Sail dn 7.2%, Sterlite dn 6.1%

Bse Cap goods dn 9.2%; Punj Lloyd dn 18%, Bhel dn 8%, L&T dn 7.8%, Abb dn 7.4%, Siemens dn 9.4%

Bse Bankex dn 7.8%; Icici Bank dn 19.8%, Yes Bank dn 20.1%, Axis Bank dn 14.6%, Hdfc down 8.8%

Bse Oil & Gas dn 6.7; Reliance Ind dn 7.3%, Cairn dn 11.9%, Rnrl dn 11.7%, Essar Oil dn 12.7%

Index Losers : Rcom dn 20.3% , Rel Infra dn 19.5%, Suzlon dn 17.6%, Rpower dn 9.8%

Relentless selling in midcap stocks : Core Proj dn 42.4%, India Infoline dn 24.9%, Nagar Const dn 24.2%, Bajaj Jind dn 22.3%

Relentless selling in midcap stocks: Welspun Guj dn 22%, United Spirits dn 21.1%, Bajaj Finserve dn 20%, India Bulls Sec dn 20%, Guj Nre Coke dn 19.7%

Horrible NSE Advance:Decline Ratio at 1:11

Total market turnover at Rs 68100.82 crore vs Rs 75587.35 crore

Nse F&O Turnover at Rs 48279 crore vs Rs 57666.95 crore

F&O Snapshot:

Nifty futures adds 36 lakh shares in OI; ends at a premium of nearly 23 points on back of cash based selling

Aggressive short build up in Private Sector banking stocks

Metal, Infra, Telecom and Oil & Gas stocks continues to see short build up

Nifty PCR slips to 0.74 in today's trade

Aggressive short build up in stock fut ; more than 30 stocks adds more than 10% OI build up

Liquid mid cap stocks butchered with selling in cash market

Unwinding in 3400 put continues

Call writing continues in 3400-3600 call options

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

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*News Headlines from Business News Agencies :* *Business Standard :* SBI General Insurance result: Net profit jumps 28% to Rs 240 cr in ...