Wave November 2009 : CITI

Next Wave November 2009

How will inter-market distortions be resolved?

.Major market timbre — The tide that has prevailed since March—low interest
rates leading to dollar weakness and euro strength, resulting in rebounds for
equities and commodities—is beginning to turn. The euro/dollar rate looks to
have peaked and equities could be entering a correction phase globally. Gold,
on the other hand, is likely to keep rising. Our focus is on what happens to
long-term yields in the US.

. Japanese equities — TOPIX broke below 867 (10/5), confirming to our eyes
that it has embarked on a near-term second leg corrective wave. If the Nikkei
breaks below 9,400, it could ease back to 8,980 or 8,450 before the year is out.
Jasdaq and other small-cap markets are also in a corrective phase but nearterm
bottoms may be close at hand.

. Overseas equities — Shanghai peaked in August, South Korea in September,
and Australia and the SOX in October. We sense the DJIA and Hang Seng may
also peak in November and join the global correction.

. Interest rates — If the US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 3.562% (10/26),
we think it could climb to 3.73% or 4.25%. On the other hand, the JGB yield
could be capped at 1.53%, with the downtrend continuing through next spring.

. Forex — We are set to move from dollar weakness to yen strength. The
euro/dollar rate hit a near-term peak at $1.5064 (10/26) and could fall back to
$1.42. We see the dollar falling through ¥87.01 (1/21) sooner or later and
sliding down to ¥82.30 or ¥80 by next spring. We caution on intensifying
corrections for other yen pairs, such as the euro/yen.

. Commodities — Gains for gold may continue. We think it could rose to $1,190 or
$1,300 before the end of the year. On the other hand, WTI crude could peak at
$85 and LME copper at $6,800 and they could then be subjected to big
shakedowns.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 20 November 2009

Hello Friends,

After long time we are updating Charts giving Technical REASONS that why we were talking about Distribution in Markets since 2-3 Days & we saw big sell off yesterday.

We believe that in this WORLD everything Happens for a Reason, the matter is you just need to identify it ,

Sensex Chart :

Nifty Chart :

Bank Nifty Chart :

Charts Analysed by AXIT D SHAH (m) +919820191219 for Educational purpose only,
Read Disclosure & Disclaimer on this web http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Provisional Fund flow Figures Rupees Crores for 19 November 2009 :

Fii -459
Dii +117
Fii (derivatives) -500
Index Futures -738
Index Options +411
Stock Futures -171
Stock Options -2
Fii OI 77k Crores only.


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 05 November 2009

Hello Friends,

Read Market Views for today on this link

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
(m)+919820191219
www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.com

Market Views for 30 October 2009

Hello Friends,

Click on this link to read the market views for today


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 29 October 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels

Close : 4826

Supports : 4795 / 4777 / 4747

Resistances : 4848 / 4868 / 4888

Yesterday Nifty final support for the day was 4777 & made low of 4784 & bounced back sharply. These range 4747 - 4777 are very important support area in the near & may act as Trend Reversal levels. But if markets close below these then all such views are negated.

Also the Global Markets have started correcting after they saw the fall into Indian markets & most of the world markets are trading around 50 Dma ( 50 Days Moving Average ). Such Averages provides good supports to the markets in near term but the sentiments are -ve so as the fall.

Around 4747-4777 Nifty may be competing around 10% correction from recent top in just few days time. The Corresponding levels in Sensex can be around 16000 levels.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 28 October 2009 :

Fii -724

Dii +896

Fii (derivatives) +373

Index Futures +119

Index Options +190

Stock Futures +62

Stock Options +2

Fii OI 76k Crores only.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 28 October 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :

Close : 4847
Supports : 4818 / 4797 / 4777
Resistances : 4888 / 4918 / 4949

A Sharp profit booking was seen in markets once Nifty broke 4950 levels with high volumes, a 100 to 125 points of Nifty sheded after these breakdown & managed to close at 4847.

Reality / Metals / Banking were the Top loosers among sectors. Yesterday RBI came out with Credit Policy & Repo Rate / Reverse Repo & CRR were unchanged while hiked SLR limit from 24% to 25%, the bankers welcomed the Credit policy but Bank Nifty was hammered from 9100 to 8700 & sheded only 400 points after the Credit Policy.

Nifty is currently testing 50 days DMA which is currently around 4830-4850 levels, this can act as mild support for the markets but the sentiments are -ve & markets may test lower supports as updated above. Also as updated earlier people & analyst were expecting the correction in markets & the same has happened. Nifty is down by 300-350 points from recent high & if sheds more 50-75 points then Nifty will complete correction by 10% in fast & furious way.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 27 October 2009 :

Fii-549
Dii+142
Fii(deri)-1597
Idx Fut-1018
Idx Opt+189
Stk Fut-739
Stk Opt-26
Fii OI 76k.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India

Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 26 October 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 4997
Supports 4977 / 4949 / 4919
Resistances 5015 / 5050 / 5085

Markets may find supports at lower levels & may catch up other Asian markets. Problems starts for Bulls once closes below final support levels as updated above.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 23 October 2009 :

Fii -479
Dii +173
Fii (derivatives) -75
Index Futures +300
Index Options -626
Stock Futures +141
Stock Options +112
Fii OI 75k Crores only.

News:

* Markets may soon start from 9 Am to 5 Pm, along with Currency Markets.
* 3G Auction may start on 14 January 2010.
* Earnings catching up as Results season in on.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 22 October 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 5068
Supports : 5050 / 5025 / 4995
Resistances : 5085 / 5115 / 5151

After many days markets have taken a breather & have closed below 5100 levels. 5111-5151 acting as stiff resistance area as markets are unable to close above these. Also some selling figures are being reported from Fii after many days ?
So is this the warning bell for Bulls or the trend will change & again markets to test New highs ?

Sentimentally many people are away from the markets with lots of Cash in hand & also many analyst are avoiding buying aggressively due to highly overbought positions or High valuations. Last many days it was mainly the Fii who were buying & buying in the markets & driving the markets higher.

Techincally important supports are placed at 16800 & 5000 levels for Sensex & Nifty respectively. Close below this levels for 2 days may buck the uptrend in short term & we may see more selling pressure & fresh short positions build up in markets. Higher side if Nifty closes above 5151 & 17300 then we may see markets making new highs & test 5300/5400 - 17800/18000 on Nifty & Sensex respectively.


Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 21 October 2009 :

Fii -512
Dii -292
Fii (derivatives) -1141
Index Futures -747
Index Options -302
Stock Futures -74
Stock Options -18
Fii OI 75k Crores only.

NEWS:

* Ril~Rnrl case to have everyday hearing untill they may find some Solution.

* Today Assembly Election Results will be out for Maharahstra, Haryana & Himachal Pradesh.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 21 October 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 5114
Supports : 5095 / 5075 / 5050
Resistances : 5135 / 5151 / 5177

Markets area gain consolidating in Narrow range of 50 points. Need to break either side for another big moves for 2-5%.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 20 October 2009:

Fii+276
Dii-141
Fii(deri)-172
Idx Fut-363
Idx Opt+94
Stk Fut+103
Stk Opt+6
Fii OI 74k


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com