Market Views for 30 September 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels
Close : 5007
Supports : 4994 / 4977 / 4949
Resistances : 5023 / 5050 / 5080

Markets after GAP up opening witnessed a very range bound session of just 20-25 points in Nifty. We continue with our previous receomendations that Nifty spot must cross & close above 5025 - 5050 with good volumes for fresh buying in markets for further up move. Till then it would be stock / sector specific moves.

Few days back we talked about Euphoria in People's Favorite stocks & untill we see that markets may not see major correction. Since last week we are witnessing such accumulation in many mid/small cap stocks which leads to beginning of Euphoria. In such moves, stocks / sectors gives wild upside moves making people feel that they have missed the rally & they start entering in markets as if there is no tomorrow. Such rally makes people to forget Valuations / Fundamentals / Technicals / Global news / etc etc. Generally such rallies are the last leg of the Bull run in short term. So people must try to control their emotions & must do thorough study be for entering the stock.

Yesterday was the 1st close above 5000 levels & if today Nifty manages to close above 5000 then we may see Euphoria in days to come. Above 5050 higher resistances are placed at 5080 - 5115 - 5151. Also another thing to be watched is Re/$ move as since last many months Re/$ is being in the range 48-50 & most of the Foreign monies are invested around these levels. When markets were near last peak of 21k Re/$ use to trade around 40-42, so from current 48 levels we still atleast 5-10% Rupee appreciation in the near term like not 40-42 but atleast we may see 44-46 levels. So if we see Euphoria in markets & along with that if we see Rupee appreciating then such logic outcome is mainly the last leg of the rally.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 29 Septmeber 2009 :

Fii +715
Dii +92
Fii (derivatives) +697
Index Futures +158
Index Options +123
Stock Futures +417
Stock Options -2
Fii OI 62k Crores only.
Markets Volumes were low around 60k Crores only.

News:

* Oil India ipo listing, premium 40-50 Rs per share.

* Fii's in buying spree since last many days & months & analyst are having cautious approach, under such coilation lets see where are Markets headed ????

* BSNL may come up with IPO nxt year : every year such news comes out, the story of BSNL-MTNL merger builds up or story of MTNL land sale builds up the stock moves up investors / traders start believing the story - buys stock at higher levels - stocks falls - investors/traders gets trapped. Since last many years we have seen the same story repeating in markets.

*Fii flows have been 5th Highest in September 2009 : Fii being net buyers in Equity markets by Rs 17k Crores only in September itself & being recorded as best month for inflows after May 2009. Fii inflows have been Rs 57k Crores only this year till date which means more money came into Indian markets against 55k Crores which went out in year 2008. Still we are only 4000 Points away from peak of 21k from recent 17k. Does this mean that Fii are more confident about India's Growth Story as compared to the Citizens of India.


Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market Views : Weekly

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 4959
Supports 4949 / 4919 / 4888
Resistances 4977 / 4994 / 5020


We continue with the previous recomendations in markets that Nifty must cross & close above 5025-5050 for fresh buying else we may see profit booking from current levels. Also there is fear among people to buy at current levels due to over valued or highly priced stocks & they may be correct too this time as not all the time the Retail people are the Targets to fix the stocks at higher prices. But under such conditions we remember " BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFULL ", this quote is mainly for Smart Traders & not Investors.

We see good short term support in markets around 4888-4900 levels & close below this can help markets to test lower levels of 4825-4777. Yesterday smart rally was seen in European markets followed by American markets as in Germany election Poll results show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats on track with 33.5% and the Free Democrats at 14.5%. Such news was released late evening as per IST & after that we smart rally rally in those markets.

There are no local -ve news in the markets but as there is Globalisation markets may follow the same. Also on Saturday we saw nos for India's core sector growth at 7.1%, more details is updated in News section below. Nos were impressive & shows some kind of Economical recovery. This are some +ve news for markets in short term.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 25 SEPT 2009 :

Fii -38
Dii +227
Fii (derivatives) +990
Index Futures -359
Index Options +1706
Stock Futures -359
Stock Options +2
FII OI 61k Crores only.

News :

* OIL INDIA ipo listing on 30 September 2009 in B group.
Issue Price Rs 1050/- only.

* RIL-RPL merged in ratio 1:16, RPL got delisted on 25 September 2009 as record date is 29 September 2009.

* Working days in this week is only 3. Markets are closed on 2nd October 2009 on A/c of Gandhi Jayanti.

* Coming October 1, 2009 Results season will start & we expect some good results from India Inc's. Due to this there would be re-rating in the stock , upside revision in Earnings & P/E would again come to fair levels from current high peaks which leads to overvaluations. But many of these things have been factored in the current market prices as per analysts.

* The market regulator, SEBI (Securities & Exchange Board of India) has okayed Indiabulls Power's IPO (initial public offering). This subsidiary of IndiaBulls Reality is expected to raise around Rs 2,000 crore.

* India's core sector clocks healthy 7.1% August growth : If growth in the core sector, which comprises of six industries, is anything to go by, India is well on its way to a sustained economic recovery. India’s core sector clocked a healthy growth of 7.1% compared to 2.1% year-on-year (YoY). Growth in the April-August quarter stood at 4.8% compared to the same period last year.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market Views for 25 September 2009

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :
Close 4986
Supports : 4949 / 4919 / 4888
Resistances : 5020 / 5050 / 5090

As expected market was highly volatile on the day of Expiry as opened Gap down, tested even lower level of 4909 in first hour of trade & slowly & gradually moved up. 4919-4949 was the range where Nifty remained for the day untill the last hour of trade, but once it broke 4949 with good volumes , short covering was seen & we saw a flyier in markets from 4949 to 5016 levels.

Markets are back to crucial levels of 5000 & as we discussed earlier Nifty need to close above 5000 for minimum 2 to 3 days then only we can see Euphoria in markets & also in many people's favourite stocks. Nifty face immediate resistance near 5025-5050 levels & cross & close over above these levels only can bring fresh buying in the markets else we may see profit booking only. Also since last 2 days world markets are also taking a breather at higher levels & if there is deep cuts globally then we need to bear the pain too as we are not distinguished.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 24 September 2009 :

Fii +1062
Dii -617
Fii (derivatives) +366
Index Futures +601
Index Options +594
Stock Futures -847
Stock Options +18
Fii OI 59k Crores only from 78k Crores.

News :
Rel Infratel / Lodha group / Emaar MGF files IPO-DRHP with SEBI,
Jet Airways okays Fund Raising Rs 1800-2000 Crores,
FED leaves BenchMark Rates unchanged,
Inflation for week ended Sept 12 @ 0.37% v/s 0.12%,
Reliance may cut Gas to Reliance Infrastructure due to delay in payments...

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Market Views for 24 September 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 4970
Supports : 4949 / 4919 / 4889
Resistances : 4994 / 5025 / 5050

Nifty is facing important resistanaces around 5025-5050 levels since last two days & yesterday good profit booking was seen in last hour of trade due to F&O expiry coming close. Also many people in India were cautious about FED meet in U.S & paniced by selling stocks at throw away price for the day.

Anyways Nifty may find good support around 4929-4949 levels & today would being the Expiry day for September Series we may see high volatility in short span of time.
Provisional Fund Flow Fig Rupees Crores for 23 September 2009:

Fii + 1749
Dii + 500
Fii (derivatives) - 1176 (net)
Index Futures -528
Index Options +86
Stock Futures -730
Stock Options -4
OI 78k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Earlier Posts / Updates

Hello Friends,

We would like to request you to read the Archieves part of our web starting from March 2009 to September 2009.

Here are links of archieves month wise :

March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009

Click on each link to read views for that particular month & once opened then read from bottom of page & move up.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views

Hello Friends,

Nifty intra day chart :




On intra day charts we can see that Nifty took long time to cross resistance level of 4949 as updated in morning. But at last finally managed to close above these levels to continue the uptrend. Also large volumes/trades were seen to break this barrier.

Nifty End of Day Chart :



Nifty is very close to achieve weekly TG of 5000 as updated last Monday on our website http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/ along with charts to explain the same. Hope regular visitors to this web must have benefitted. Also on our Wednesday Market views we have talked about some Euphoria in markets & explained 4 stages of Markets. An activity almost similar to same was seen in Markets on the same day as some stocks were up as if there no tomorrow. Still we see that this may continue in big momemtum once Nifty stays above 5000 for few days.

Still many shorts have not been covered with revised sl of 5000 & still there is some kind of Optimism in markets. After Optimistic stage we may see Euphoria stage in Markets as still people are cautious at higher levels. But still remember Profit booking at higher levels is advisable as profit booking is not Crime but an ART.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 16 September 2009:

Fii +1106
Dii +143
Fii(deri) +774
Index Futures +336
Index Options -28
Stock Futures +433
Stock Options +33
Open interest 75k Crores only.

* Inflation nos will be out.
* Fii's into buying Spree since last many days making indices to move higher & higher leads to sign of caution.

Read Disclosure & Disclaimer on http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 16 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

!~! MARKETS AT YEARS HIGH !~!

NifTiee intra day levels
Close 4892
Supports : 4868 / 4848 / 4818
Resistances : 4919 / 4949 / 4979

Nifty today managed to close above 4888, the level which we were discussing since last 1 week. Yesterday after opening gap up opening markets sustained to trade near 4888 levels as again the range was narrow. An intra day hit & go selling pressure was seen in markets which encouraged many short sellers to come out shout about the weakness & panic but all selling pressure was silently absorbed by the Bulls & after that tested intra day high of 4899.

Provisional Fund flow figures Rupees Crores for 15 Sept 2009 :

Fii +776
Dii +133
Fii (derivatives) +785
Index Futures +295
Index Options -126
Stock Futures +635
Stock Options -20
Fii Open Interest 71k Crores only.

2 days back we discussed with some of our clients that there are generally Four stages in markets :

1. Pessimism : 2500 Nifty
2. Skeptism : 3500 Nifty
3. Optimism : 4500 Nifty
4. Euphoria : 5000 or 5500 or 6000 Nifty ??????

Depending on your Psycology & Sentiments you can yourself judge that where are current markets & where they are headed ????
Generally Euphoria is a stage where generally Stocks which people love see big upside moves as if there is no tomorrow. One may even see non stop upper circuits in such stocks for consecutive days & every day they feel that they missed out the rally in the markets due to greed. Such moves are generally seen in Midcap to small cap stocks which are cheaply priced. Cheap not by fundamentals but by price & most of these are below Rs 100 priced stocks which people hold in large qty & bull run 4 them is felt when all such stocks move up & not by Large Caps or Index moves.

We may see such stage in Markets once Nifty starts to close above 5000 levels. Sensex has doubled from March 2009 lows where as Nifty is yet to follow the same. All Euphoric Views will be negated if Nifty do not close above 5000 levels for 2 to 3 consecutive days.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 15 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee intra day levels :
Close 4808
Supports : 4797 / 4777 / 4747
Resistances : 4828 / 4848 / 4888

Nifty closed at 4808 yesterday very close to support level 4807 as updated to sms members in morning. Still market is volatile in narrow range & almost 1 week has been passed in this range. Many short term traders are getting bored as there is not major moves in the markets since last one week & some are exiting short term positions due to boring markets.

Breakout above 4888 & breakdown below 4777 could decide the trend in near future. Till then mkts may remain volatile in narrow range.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.com

Weekly Market Views at a Glance

Hello Friends,

Nifty Daily Chart : Click on Chart to Enlarge,

Sensex Daily Chart : Click on Chart to Enclarge,





Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 11 Sept 2009 :

Fii +229
Dii -294
Fii Derivatives : +86
Index Futures +115
Index Options +82
Stock Futures -111
Stock Options +0.33
OI 68k Crores

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 11 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee intra day levels :
Close : 4819
Supports : 4777 / 4747 / 4717
Resistances : 4848 / 4888 / 4919

Yesterday as told that 4888 is the key level & if sustains then we may see good short covering in the markets but the level was just tested as Nifty made high of 4889 just 1 point above the key resistance area & intra day profit booking was seen. Was it intra day profit booking or gap filling ??? as markets opened gap up yesterday & to fill the gap is +ve sign on charts as per Gap theory.

Today again we may see some +ve opening in the markets backed by global cues as U.S markets closed on years high & also Asian markets are trading flat to +ve. We continue with the same views as we discussed yesterday that above 4888 good short covering & we may see 4919 / 4949 soon. The views is valid only if 4888 sustains with good volumes.
Inflation nos were out yesterday at -0.12% v/s -0.21% very close of being +ve as per our estimate.

One thing to notice is that 2 days back Sensex closed at 16016 & yesterday it closed at 16216, now what next 16516 or 16616 or 16916 what ever may be the figure as its just magical. Try to book some profits at higher levels as at higher levels greed rises along with Volatility. We would like to make views clear that " Profit booking is an Art & not Crime " , this does not mean that we are advising for Short Selling as Profit Booking & Short Selling are completely different concepts.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 10 Sept 2009 :

Fii +468
Dii -124
Fii(deri)+1071
Index Futures +496
Index Options +379
Stock Futures +209
Stock Options -13
OI 67k Crores only

The initial public offering (IPO) of Oil India (OIL), the second largest oil and gas company in India, has received remarkable response from investors, especially QIB (qualified institutional investors).
It has been subscribed 30.81 times so far and has received bids for 81.5 crore shares as against issue size, as per the data available on the NSE website. QIBs' reserved portion got subscribed 54 times followed by non-institutional and retail investors; their portion subscribed 10 times and 1.8 times, respectively. The issue received more than 2.10 lakh applications.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 10 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee intra day levels :
Close 4814
Supports : 4777 / 4747 / 4717
Resistances : 4848 / 4888 / 4919

Since last 2 days markets are consolidating in a narrow range of 50 points for Nifty. Yesterday Nifty was unable to breach our 1st resistance level of 4828 as made high of 4825 & also was unable to break 1st support level of 4777 as made low of 4783. The day was volatile in this narrow range & as told Bears have averaged our their short positions around 4820-4830 levels with revised sl. This situation is when Bulls buy lower & sell higher as this works our mainly in Bull markets & proves some tough time for Bears as they Sell Higher & Square off positions even higher. Since last many months the same has been happening as Bears tried the Best possible way to bring markets down like panic for Swine Flu / Drought etc etc etc.....

Anyways Smart traders may not take this much seriously as they know what they are doing & where is market headed by following the levels, the trend & do not get carried away with misconceptions. Yesterday in markets there was small rally mainly supported by RIL as the stock was maily up by Rs 100 only from Tuesdays closing while other heavy weights were laggards due to some profit booking or bears hammering near 4820-4830 levels. But we may see that soon these levels will be breached & Nifty may see break out from this range to test 4888 & above 4888 we may see huge short covering in markets.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 09 Sept 2009 :

Fii +193
Dii +239
Fii Derivatives -70
Index Futures +8
Index Options -29
Stock Futures -51
Stock Options +3
OI 65k Crores only & Market Turnover at 78k Crores only.

Note : Today inflation nos will be out & may turn +ve after weeks of -ve inflation. Make sure the media does not panic for inflation turning +ve as we may see in future Hike in CRR or Repo rates to reduce excess liquidity into the system. Also GOVT is planning to change the base for Calculation of inflation as we discussed few months back regarding this so no need to repeat again.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Market Views for 09 - 09 - 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty EOD chart :


NifTiee Close 4805
Supports : 4777 / 4747 / 4717
Resistances : 4828 / 4848 / 4888

Markets again have come to another resistance levels like 16200 for Sensex while the same for Nifty can be 4820-4830, now markets needs to close above 16200 to continue the upward momemtum as some short sellers have averaged out their positions yesterday by selling again at higher levels with some revised stop losses as they now feel that 16200 is not so easy to breach. Anyways the story of Bulls & Bears continues & the smart traders who is neither bull or bear & who just follows the trend must know what he is doing.

Provisional Fund Flow Fig Rupees Crores for 8 Sept 2009 :

Fii +992
Dii +206
Fii Derivatives +1133
Index Futures +816
Index Options +12
Stock Futures +199
Stock Options +106
OI 65k Crores only & Vol crosses 1 lac Crores only.

Since last 2 days Fii's are in big buying mode, SGX Nifty is trading Flat & other world markets updates can be checked out on www.Alliesfin.Blogspot.Com

Good Day


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Market Views for 8 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty Chart :

NiFtiee Close 4783

Supports : 4747 / 4717 / 4666

Resistance : 4818 / 4848 / 4888

Provisional Fund flow Fig Rs Crores for 07 Sept' 2009
Fii +1061

Dii +150

Fii Derivatives : +1826

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Nifty Intraday Chart 04 Sept 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty Intra day Chart

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market Views for 01 September 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty EOD Charts :



NifTiee Close 4662


Supports : 4646 / 4616 / 4566
Resistances : 4697 / 4717 / 4747

The Story of Bears has been proven by markets as updated in our previous articles on our web www.Alliesfin.BlogSpot.Com that 1 day the Markets will FALL. Monday was the day when markets opened lower by taking Global Cues & mainly from Chinese Fear Factor as it was down by 6-7% only due to failure of some Leading bank to raise money.

The Hedge funds may be selling there & incurring losses there & selling in India too to compensate losses. Anyways this may be over soon & infact this can 1 of the positive factor too as Sell China & Buy India as lots of funds are attracted towards India's story.

GDP nos for Q1 were out at 6.1% v/s our estimate of 6%, this was in line with our expectations that despite drought panic India growed above 6%. Any numbers around 6 or above 6% is +ve for Economy & for markets too.


Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 31 August 2009 :

Fii : -271
Dii : +19
Fii ( Derivatives ) : +285 (net)
Index Futures : +465
Index Options : +173
Stock Futures : -498
Stock Options : +145
OI 54K Crores only.

Today NHPC listing, issue price 36, likely to list around 40-42 ( unless we see fake prices on Screen ).

Good day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/