Monday 30 March 2009

Market View for 31 March 2009

Hello Friends,

Profit booking was the key today as we have updated in our last post on this web. Gloabal cues helped the markets to open gap down. Metals & Banking stocks were highly beaten down. Also many Fridays Midcap & Small Cap top gainers lost the battle & were highly beaten. ADAG stocks which were on Fire on Friday were in control by the Fire Brigade people. Its has been heard that many leading Fii's were on spree of Profit booking ( may be they have heard our Voice of Profit Booking in our last post on our website ).


Tomorrow 31 March 2009 last day of Financial Year 2008-2009, on this day we may see some value buying at lower levels OR Dead Cat bounce from local Funds to book the year end NAV's. Stocks which Local Funds have large holdings can be the Star of the Day. Tomorrow the JOKER can be Reliance industries, lets check what Charts tel about Ril :


RIL Intra day Chart :




RIL : EOD Chart :




RIL have found supports on daily charts around 1490 - 1500 & bounced back sharply from that levels. The same buying at lower levels in last hour of trade was seen on Intra day charts along with huge volumes. So RIL may be the Key or Joker for the day.

NifTiee Intra day Levels:
Close 2978
Supports : 2950 / 2929 / 2910
Resistances : 2990 / 3030 / 3080


PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RUPEES CRORES FOR 30 MARCH 2009 :

Fii -452
Dii -49
Fii (derivatives) -817

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India


Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Saturday 28 March 2009

Market View 30 March 2009

Hello Friends,




Break out & Consolidation : Markets gave a 3 sudden break out in very short span of time driven full of liquidity & global cues. Global world indices also put fire to engine to bust 1 way with out taking more halts. Some says its Pre Election rally or some says its Year end rally to boost the NAV's etc etc but remember one thing that rally is rally & Bulls r Bulls only. In just 15 days time Indices are up by approx 20% only from recent low, so we expect some profit booking in markets.

As told earlier also PROFIT BOOKING IS NOT A CRIME BUT ITS AN ART but the inner greed does not let many people to master this ART. If you think that if u book profits then you may miss the rally if market goes up after selling but my dear friend if you sell for eg 100 shares at Rs 100 resistance levels or the levels where you are uncomfortable with the markets & even after your sell the market rallies by 10% then you can enter again at this break out level & you may only loose 10 shares out of 100 shares you sold at Rs 100 & can buy again 90 at shares at Rs 110 for another rally into the markets. But when you buy 90 shares at break out or comfortable prices , this time you are more convinced with the markets & your strategies, so you may only miss a rally of 10 shares at uncomfortable levels.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HERE ARE ONLY FOR SHORT TERM TRADERS & INVESTORS.
LONG TERM IS MORE LIKE BUY & HOLD FOR MONTHS & YEARS. BUT BY WITNESSING THE CURRENT FALL IN THE MARKETS MANY ANALYSTS HAVE CHANGED THE DEFINATION FOR LONG TERM INVESTING. ITS ONLY THOSE PEOPLE WHO ARE INTO THESE MARKETS FOR DECADES CAN UNDERSTAND THE TERM & MAKE OTHERS UNDERSTAND.

A cycle of Bull run : it starts will many large cap index based stocks then it moves to mid caps & then small cap stocks.

A cycle of Bear run : it starts will many large cap index based stocks then it moves to mid caps & then small cap stocks.


To play in any of the run with old position build up is TRAIL STOP LOSS & we know that many people have pschology that why should be we do stop loss ?

A Stop Loss is a word for active traders & generally they like to follow it as they know the impact if not done on time.

A passive trader is a person who knows the term Stop Loss but dont like to follow due to emotional attachment to the stock or markets as they feel that what ever they buy or sell must go 1 way only after they execute the trade. Such short term traders either become long term investors if trapped at higher levels or they exit the portfolio at very cheap prices.

Many people ask us about the levels which they use to hear from various market sources or from Idiot box (TV), we only tell them DIKHA VO PE MAT JAAO APNI AKAL LAGAO ( dont act for what have been shown to you but use your own brains ). Yes many times there is difference in What is Real & What has been Shown to you as Real, this happens when there is matter of personal conflicts or gains.

ANYWAYS LETS GET BACK TO THE MARKETS AS THIS ARE ENDLESS STORIES & HOW MUCH YOU WRITE WILL ALWAYS BE SHORT.

NifTiee intra day Levels :
Close 3108
Supports 3080 / 3050 / 3030
Resistances 3131 / 3151 / 3181

Next week in markets profit booking may come at higher levels & also a season of holidays will start as in next 15 days we have 2 holidays on working days & Sat - Sun different so in all 8 holidays.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 27 MARCH 2009

Fii +80
Dii +43
Fii ( Derivatives ) +256
Index Futures +166
Index Options +91
Stock Futures +22
Stock Options -24
** FII OI at 42k only as significantally down in last 2 days & also Vol. has dropped down from 90k to 70k but higher then 6m avg vol 55k.

WEALTH CREATION THOUGHT :

"WHEN ALL THE EXPERTS & FORECASTS AGREE,
SOMETHING ELSE IS GOING TO HAPPEN"

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India

(m) +91 9869958999
Web : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Friday 27 March 2009

Market View For 27 March 2009

Hello Friends,

As expected Markets were on a Rock n Roll on the day of expiry. Sensex Crosses 10000 mark & Nifty Tests 3100, Sensex managed to close above 10000 while Nifty managed to close at 3082 which was our resistance level for yesterday (3080).

Yesterday in our updates it was clearly written that markets are in highly +ve mood & if sustains above 3030 markets to test 3080 & 3131. If you can yesterdays intra day charts markets for 1 or 2 hours was halted at 3030 & in just 1 hour of trade above 3030 it was a Rocket to test 3100 levels.

Also yesterday it was mentioned that to manage the indices the stocks which have not participated in the rally or has underperformed indices in this short run wil participate & the same happened in the markets. Stocks which we bet on were Bharti Airtel & Lnt & along with this which participated yesterday were Bhel, Sunpharma, Ongc etc... which underperformed or did not participate in this short term bull run.

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 3082
Supports : 3050 / 3030 / 2990
Resistances : 3111 / 3131 / 3180

Now this is too late time to create any fresh longs in the markets at this levels. Also revise trailing stop loss for short term long postions to 2929, this was been updated yesterday only. No doubt at higher levels profit booking may come any time so if you are happy with the current gains you are getting then start booking profits with out timing the markets & waitng to sell at the top price. In this markets its practical that no 1 can buy at the bottom price & no 1 can sell the top price so we need to play in between this two.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 26 MARCH 2009

Fii +1291
Dii -462
Fii (derivatives) +147
Index Futures +186
Index Options +211
Stock Futures -291
Stock Options +40
Index options Exercised : 2383
Index options Assigned : 1431
Stock Options Exercises : 670
Stock Optons Assigned : 203
** Fii OI has been significantly down from 58k Crores to 40k Crores in just a days times.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India

Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Newsletters : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Thursday 26 March 2009

Market View for 26 March 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty after witnessing highly volatile session managed to close at intra day higher levels. Due to expiry as expected the Volatility has increased. Today the last Thursday of the month & March Contracts to expire, Volumes in last few trading sessions has rose & almost touches 90k Crores which is very high at just 40-50% of prices.

Fii OI has rose in just last few trading sessions. Whats Cooking with so high volumes ? at just half the prices. Previous data of market shows that when ever markets falls or prices come down significantly the participation of people increases which leads to so high volumes. The same case we witnessed in many markets like Dow, Nasdaq etccc. Just imagine what volumes markets can do now if we test again 12000 - 15000 odd levels. Our Stats says that if markets just rise by 2000 to 3000 points from here then we may see all time high volumes as we use to see in Jan 2008 or at 20000 / 21000 levels.

NifTiee Intra day levels:
Close : 2984
Supports : 2950 / 2925 / 2888
Resistances : 3010 / 3030 / 3080

Today if markets manage to close above 3030 then we may see higher levels of 3080 or 3131. There is enough strength in the markets as since last two days its taking good support around 2929 levels. Markets are up almost up 20% from recent lows and many Index based stocks are up by 20 to 40%. To manage the indices the stocks which have not participated in the rally or have underperformed indices in this run may participate in the next rally.

All trading long positions can held with revised stop loss of 2888 on closing basis & if markets closes above 3030 then move the revised stop loss to 2929 to Ride the Volatility in Short Term.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 25 MARCH 2009

FII +349
DII +9
FII (DERIVATIVES ) +341
INDEX FUTURES +333
INDEX OPTIONS +48
STOCK FUTURES -80
STOCK OPTIONS +40

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Fin Serve
Mumbai, India

Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Wednesday 25 March 2009

NIFTY Free Float Market Cap Methodology

Hello Friends,

NIFTY: To be computed on free-float market cap methodology : Top Gainers & Losers

- National Stock Exchange’s S&P CNX Nifty Index will be computed using the free-float market capitalization method from June 26. The free float for each company in the index will be determined on the basis of the public shareholding. Nifty is currently calculated using full market capitalization weighted methodology.

- The top gainers of the transition are Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC, ITC, L&T, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank while the top losers of the transition are NTPC, ONGC, Powergrid, SAIL, TCS, Bharti, Wipro and DLF.

- The top 3 sector gainers are Banking, FMCG and IT while the top 3 sector losers are Utilities, Oil & Gas and Telecom.

- Following tables are a summary of the Top Gainers and Losers due to transition of Nifty weights from Market Cap to free-float market capitalization method.








Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India

Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Tuesday 24 March 2009

Market View for 25 March 2009

Hello Friends,



All Views updated on Charts above.
Regards,

Allies Fin Serve
Mumbai, India


Web : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Market View 24 March 2009

Hello Friends,



Yesterday was a day full of Break outs & with a Gap up opening helped the markets to reach higher levels. Markets were witnessing profit booking pressure at 2810 - 2825 levels but a gap up open above this gave all break outs & helped markets to lead higher & higher.

In Charts Breakout 1 & Break out 2 levels are shown, if you buy on 1st break then use trail stop loss or book around resistance levels of 3030, Also we are now 400 points up from the recent low at 2525 levels and sharp pull pack has been seen.

In last few posts on this web we have talked about time analysis from 15th Feb 2009 to 15th March 2009, we talked about 2 possible scenario's & in that the 2nd scenario worked for the markets. To read more on this click on this LINK

As 15 March was Sunday markets gave 1st Break out on 13 March 2009 as seen on charts as break out 1. Since then markets rallied for about 10 - 15% in just 10 days time & few index stocks rallied for about 15 - 25 %. What else you expect in short term from MARKETS ?

Today markets above 2950 wil move into congestion level of 2950 - 2990 above this it may test levels of 3030 - 3050. We have expiry this week so profit booking at higher levels can not be ruled out.

Nifty IntraDay Levels :
Close 2940
Supports : 2925 / 2888 / 2855
Resistances : 2965 / 2990 / 3030


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India


Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Newsletters : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Tuesday 17 March 2009

Market Views For 18 March 2009

Hello Friends,



We are updating this blog after many days, anyways Markets are close to Resistance zone & profit booking was likely to come from Nifty 2810-2825 levels. This levels were updated in morning to members of our free sms group.

The Level 2810-2825 has trendline resistance as shown in charts & also we have Fibo retracement level of 61.8%. So did markets as made high of 2805 in spot Nifty & the Era of profit booking started. On hourly charts markets saw a congestion around 2727 to 2750 of spot Nifty. Any close below this 2727 level can break this trend of short bull run or pull back rally.

Another scenario is if Nifty is able to sustain & close above 2810-2825 then we can see Nifty testing higher levels of 2855 / 2888 / 2929. May be some Global Cues or Local +ve news from RBI can do the same. We are in last & final leg of Time Analysis which we used to discuss last month & wrote many things / scenarios. In this time we just saw a break down from 2666 to 2525 & markets gave sharp pull back from there.

Our Scenario 2 on Time analysis is the same as happening in markets that in this final leg if time passes & markets stay stable ( like not breaking previous low ) then we can see the short term immediate bottom has been made which wil sustain for the next few coming months. Next month markets have lot many holidays in the 1st & 2nd week of April & then we have the Most
Expensive Democratic Elections coming.

NifTiee Intra Day Levels :
Close 2757
Supports : 2725 / 2710 / 2690
Resistances : 2777 / 2810 / 2825

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 17 MARCH 2009

Fii +415
Dii -153
Fii (derivatives) +951
Index Futures +333
Index Options +693
Stock Futures -109
Stock Options +34

Regards,

Allies Fin Serve
Mumbai, India

Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Email Group :
http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Friday 6 March 2009

Market View for 06 March 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty yesterday tested our higher resistance just by a point of 2664 & Res was 2666 & started falling from these levels. As updated earlier that 2666 level is last hope for the bulls in the short run & if we manage to close below this for 2 to 3 days then we may see markets falling by 5 to 10% in short run from 2666.

NifTiee Intra Day Levels:
Close 2577
Supports : 2555 / 2525 / 2480
Resistances : 2610 / 2630 / 2666

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RUPESS CRORES FOR 05 MARCH 2009 :

Fii -591
Dii +479
Fii(Deri)-294 (net)
Idx Fut +97
Idx Opt -438
Stk Fut -24
Stk Opt +72

Note : Inflations nos 3.03% & RBI Cuts Repo & Rev Repo Rates but no +ve impact was seen on the markets due to this. Sun Outage has started from 05 To 19 March 2009 but no stopage of markets during this time which use to happen in last many years.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India


Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Thursday 5 March 2009

Market View for 05 March 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty Yesterday has made a double bottom at 2611 levels & whole day managed to stay above this levels. Some recovery as seen in last hour of trade & managed to close at 2645 spot Nifty levels.

Yesterday U.S & Europe markets showed good recovery from bottom & managed to close up by 2-3%. Yesterday smart recovery was seen in Metal stocks on a/c of news from China about the Stimulas package. Even in London Metal Exchange (LME) smart recovery was seen in this counters. But will all this sustain at higher levels ?

NIFTIEE Intra day Levels :
Close 2645
Supports: 2625/2610/2580
Resistances: 2666/2690/2710

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RUPEES CRORES FOR 04 MARCH 2009 :

Fii -494
Dii +119
Fii(deri) +793 (net)
Idx Fut +614
Idx Opt +148
Stk Fut -47
Stk Opt +78

NOTE : TODAY INFLATION NOS WIL BE OUT

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India


Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Monday 2 March 2009

Market Views For 03 March 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty EOD chart



Sensex EOD Chart




We are updating this Blog after many days sue to some busy schedule. Anyways markets are in this range of 2650-2950 since last 2 to 3 months & today again a day has come that markets are again testing the lower end of this range. But this time the scenario is different as it has broken the trendline which was giving support to the markets till now.

In last week 2 to 3 attempts were made by markets to break out this trendline resistances but unable to succeed. Also Nifty can not sustain MAGICAL LEVEL OF 2777 on upper side. Once we break this another & final support or final hope for Bulls is MAGICAL LEVEL of 2666. Today the same has been tested but some how managed to close above this level. Also the Nifty Future discount has widenend.

WE are in Crucial time cycle from 15 FEB 2009 to 15 MARCH 2009 as we updated this on this website last month too. We have hinted few scenairo's are possible in this time frame. The Scenarios were EITHER MARKETS WIL TEST OLD BOTTOM or IF THIS TIME IS PASSED & MARKETS HOLD THIS LEVELS THEN SHORT TERM BOTTOM IS MADE.

We still need to wait for next 2 to 3 trading sessions to watch out our support levels is broken or hold on. All support levels will be calculated on closing basis.

NIFTIEE Close 2675
Supports : 2666 / 2650 / 2610
Resistances : 2710 / 2725 / 2777

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RUPEES CRORES FOR 02 MARCH 2009 :

Fii -580
Dii +334
Fii(Derivatives) -46 (Net)

TODAY 15TH LOKSABHA ELECTION DAYS HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. ELECTIONS WILL BE CONDUCTED IN 5 PHASES i.e. FROM APRIL 16, 23 & 30 .... MAY 7 & 13. COUNTING OF VOTES TO BEGIN FROM 16 MAY 2009.

Last year's Cause of Concern is today's Ignorance like :

Sub Prime & Market fell, Today we have BAILOUTS.
Crude Rose & Market fell, Today Totally we have RangeBound movements.
Inflation Rose & Market fell, Today markets are tensed due to Deflation.
Interest Rates Rose & Market fell, Today they are easing off but STILL MARKETS FALLING.

Anyways these days Markets are more influenced due to weak Sentiments amony people & no people needs to dare in this markets except good traders & Long investors who understands that Pessimism produces prices for long term Investors.


Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India


Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

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