The road to 2019: "ALLIESFIN
With the results for 5 state elections almost declared, it is now clear that Congress is forming government in the Hindi heartlands of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. People have been asking me since morning to interpret the result vis-a-vis 2019 general elections. Here is my take on the issue.
1. Chhattisgarh : A complete shocker and totally unexpected. Traditionally, the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh have been extremely close. After 15 years of governance in a state where elections are too close, anti-incumbency was bound to be high. Another factor was the alliance of Mayawati-Ajit Jogi, that dented atleast 10% vote share of BJP, leading to the rout of the party.
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2. Madhya Pradesh : After the anti-incumbency of 15 years, and disillusionment from a handful sections of the society, Congress is still sweating hard to earn a majority on its own. Congress may form the government, but it also knows that it has not performed as it would have liked to.
If you look at vote share, BJP is ahead with 41.5% against Congress's 41.1%.
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3. Rajasthan : A state where the anger against Raje was running large since more than 2 years. Slogans like "Modi se bair nahi, Rani teri khair nahi" (We have no enemity from Modi, but will teach the queen (Vasundhara Raje) a lesson was talk of the state. BJP wasn't expected to win even 50 seats in the state. In such a bleak scenario, the BJP did much better than it was expecting. Vote share of BJP is 38.5% while that of Congress is 39.1%.
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4. Telangana : The idea of Mahagathbandhan and Naidu-Congress alliance remains a flop and faced a wipe-out. It is very clear that this has severely dented Congress's chance to make an entry into Telangana.
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5. Mizoram : This completes BJP's aim of a Congress-mukt northeast. Congress has lost its last state in the northeast.
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Now, let's analyse the data (since elections are always a game of arithmetic) and see what these mean for 2019. Emotions and rabble rousing have no place in analyzing Indian election system. So, what is the road up to 2019 like ?
By: via @AlliesFin Serve T.ME/ALLiESFiN
