Market Views for 31 August 2009

Hello Friends,

Niftiee Close 4732
Supports : 4695 / 4646 / 4616
Resistances : 4747 / 4777 / 4817

On Friday Nifty gave 1st close above 4700 levels, now we need to watch for second day closing above 4700 levels. If market gives that then its fine else we may see some profit booking from current levels. Important supports are placed near 4616-4646 levels.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 28 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee intra day levels
Close : 4688
Supports : 4666 / 4646 / 4616
Resistances : 4717 / 4747 / 4777

Again a day of consolidation, markets consolidated near 4700 levels on the day of August Expiry. We continue with our previous views that markets need to close above 4700 for minimum 2days then only we can new highs for the year till date.

Nifty took support for day yesterday at 4645 & our support was 4646 & bounced back upto 4708 levels while our 1st resistance was 4717. The immediate resistance for Nifty is 4731 which is recent rally top & cross & close above that can bring some short covering in the markets as many shorts have been rollovered with the same sl.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 27 AUGUST 2009 :

Fii -41
Dii +29
Fii(derivatives) -515 (net)
Index Futures -112
Index Options -329
Stock Futures -120
Stock Options +46
OI 49k Crores only.


*Nifty futures OI stands at 23.28 m shs. Nifty Sep futures settled at a premium of 9 which is the same as in the previous session.

* Total Open Interest is at INR 653.2b as against INR 588.86b in the previous session and is the highest to start with since Feb-08.

* Aug series has witnessed Total Rollover of 83% (6m-avg 76%) (Highest since Aug-08) and Nifty Rollover of 75% (6m-avg 67%).

* Stocks witnessing high rollovers include Indiacem, Herohonda, Balramchin, Gmrinfra and Techm.

* Delivery:- Banking stocks (Bankbaroda, Bankindia, Pnb, Kotakbank) and IT stocks (Hcltech, Wipro) witnessed sharp rise in delivery.

* ATM Implied volatility for Nifty decreased to 32.1 % as against 32.7 % in the previous session and the India VIX decreased to 34.84% as against 36.27% in the previous session.

* The market breadth remained positive though the Adv:Dec ratio slid to 3:2 as against 9:4 in the previous session.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
(m)+91 9820 191219
Email : AlliesFin9@Gmail.com
Yahoo IM: AlliesFin9@Yahoo.com
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 27 August 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty EOD Charts

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 4681
Supports : 4646 / 4616 / 4586
Resistances : 4717 / 4747 / 4777

Since last 2 days Markets are taking a halt around 4700 ahead F&O expiry & today is the expiry day. We see some stock specific Volatility & some rollover index moves. Till yesterday the rollovers have been good & close to 6 month averages, but we need to check out todays EOD figures.

We continue with our previous recomendations that close above 4700 for minimum 2 days will be highly positive for markets in short term & we may soon see then 4800 - 5000 odd levels. In each rally the Leaders & the Laggards changes, this time rally is mainly supported by heavy weights from Auto / I.T sector & Laggards are Banking Stocks & Reliance pack.

We have alerted many times people to dont go short in Bull markets as in Bull markets generally the strategies are Buy on Dips & Sell on Rises but some stubborn people or misguided people do Sell on Dips & Buy on Rises & end up losing hard earned money. Even people who have been in markets since last many years or decades have got some kind of stubborn attitude as they end up having shorts without SL & advise their clients that 1 day markets will come down & we will make good money. This is some kind of thought of School going child that 1 day we will bunk the school & go for movie.... How such experienced people advise such things to their clients ?????

The above extract is based on some of the Responses/Base/Facts of the people we get from round the country in India.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 26 August 2009 :

Fii +379
Dii +129
Fii (derivatives) +435
Index Futures +178
Index Options +131
Stock Futures +20
Stock Options +105
OI 61k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 24 August 2009

Hello Friends,

Nifty EOD Chart

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 21 August 2009:

Fii +533
Dii +96
Fii (derivatives) +514 (net)
Index Futures +214
Index Options +73
Stock Futures +220
Stock Options +7
OI 58k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market View for 19 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 4459
Supports : 4444 / 4411 / 4384
Resistances : 4488 / 4514 / 4545

As mentioned yesterday we saw some good bounce back in markets from supports levels of 4343 - 4363, hope u benefitted.

Today we can see some intra day volatility & markets may test higher resistance levels. Above 4515 we can see some more short covering & fresh long build ups. Many people getting trapped by short selling at lower levels & when next day Markets open Gap up they find themself in No Mens Land. Many people who have been visiting our website www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com must be benefitting as they get oppurtunity to sell at higher levels & buy at lower levels as we are witnessing the same in last many days.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 18 August 2009 :

Fii -722
Dii +467
Fii (derivatives) +850 (net)
Index Futures -184
Index Options +561
Stock Futures +458
Stock Options +14
OI 55k Crores only.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market View for 18 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee intra day levels:
Close 4388
Supports : 4363 / 4343 / 4313
Resistances : 4411 / 4444 / 4488

A highly profit booking or panic selling was seen in markets yesterday due to Global Cues, after opening gap down for about 300 points markets managed to sustain these levels for an hour or so but as the day passed fresh selling emerged in markets due to other Asian markets were down by 3-5% only. So there were so no hope for the revival.

In just 2 days markets moved from 4350 to 4625 levels & in just 1 day we can see the same levels back. Today we can see some supports around 4343 - 4363 levels as these are recent bottom & we may see some supports here & may bounce from these levels.

Provisional Fund Flow Figure Rupees Crores for 17 August 2009 :

Fii -1226
Dii +460
Fii(deri)+256(net)
Index Futures -163
Index Options +875
Stock Futures -446
Stock Options -9
Open Interest 53k

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 17 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 4580
Supports : 4545 / 4525 / 4488
Resistances : 4616 / 4646 / 4676

As expected we saw a smart pull back rally or dead cat bounce from 4400 levels to 4600 levels in just 2days time. In our earlier post we mentioned that fresh buying can come only on close above 4700 levels till that time we may see buying at major supports & selling near major resistances.

The level of 4616 & 4636 are major resistances in the near term as these levels are the double / tripple bottom when markets were at 4680-4700 levels & were trying to close above 4700 levels. Now these supports have now become resistances in the near term & on Friday we saw some profit booking near by these levels only.

We had advised to our sms members to buy near 4400 levels & book some profits near 4600 levels as a gain of only 200 points in Nifty was more then enough in just 2 days time.
Anyways today also we can see the same profit booking happening at higher levels & we may see that our lower supports being tested.

Provisional Fund Flow Figure Rupees Crores for 14 August 2009:

Fii -126
Dii +444
Fii (derivatives) -84
Index Futures -240
Index Options -322
Stock Futures -155
Stock Options -11
Fii OI 53k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 10 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Close 4481 & intra day levels :
Supports : 4444 / 4422 / 4385
Resistance : 4515 / 4545 /4585

In our last weeks articles we have updated & alerted that Nifty need to close above 4700 for minimum 2 days to confirm the bullish uptrends or profit booking may come, but how ever it did not managed to close above that & we saw the profit booking or fall like a monster. Also we revised the Trail stop loss for all long postions to 4444 & on friday Nifty spot tested 4464 levels & managed to close at 4481 levels.

So still the level of 4444 is not breached on closing basis & from here we may see some technical bounce or can term as Dead Cat bounce after such monsterous fall. Hope people reading this blog regularly must have benefitted by booking profits at higher levels & buying near important trend supports. Last week buyers are buried live at higher levels & in this dead cat bounce sellers will be buried live. The main pain comes to the small trader / investor who have less amount of money & still they trade in derivaties for short term greed. We like to advise all class to people to know the derivatives term & then use it to hedge your portfolio against the indices. WARREN BUFFETT TRULY SAID " Derivatives are Financial Weapons for Massive Wealth Destruction " Such a legendry person is alerting the world but still people dont follow the legends & end up loosing capital & destory wealth. Anyways after lot many errors if a person opens his eyes then this is 1st positive achievements.

In just 2 days of fall we have received lot many calls from people round the country as many are trapped at higher levels & mainly in derivatives as people enter positions for intra day gains & become short term investors as they are unable to sell at higher levels despite warnings from us. Anyways next week we can see some dead cat bounce in the markets due to testing important trend reversal levels. But fresh buying can only come above 4700 levels on closing basis till then the rally can be termed as relief rally only.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 07 August 2009 :

Fii -1051
Dii +414
Fii(deri)-792
IndexFutures -681
Index Options +9
Stock Futures -231
Stock Options +111

NOTE: Current Affairs : In the last few weeks we have witnessing rise in the food prices which may lead to high inflation in days to come due to Drought in many states of the country as declared by the MET department. The GOVT is unable to control the price as many people are not facing the heat of the same & the highest heat is faced by the common man, the Salaried class & the lower middle & middle-middle class. Soon the higher middle & higher class will also start facing the heat if this things do not come under control soon. The International Food markets see rise in food prices as many things in India are now being imported from other countries to serve the domestic requirements. In other words this may also lead to rise in trade deficit which may effect the countries current a/c & people may come to know only after few days, weeks or months when media will show them & then they will panic. Last week media highlighted 17000 / 20000 index & we saw steep fall in just 2 days time & now this time lets see what new story they have & how they will help you panic more. Also in our few previous articles on this blog we alerted people about water harvesting system as just imagine 1 failure of monsoon has paniced the entire economy. If the entire monsoon fails or goes like this then soon you will have all luxuries of life but you will loose basic necetities like food, water & electricity. So 1 day you will have luxury apartments, luxury cars, hi fi societies but think all will be without water, food & Electricity. Also to some extent the commodities markets are even responsible for the artificial rise in the prices for short term, the GOVT must seriously think on this & cool off the sudden rise in basis food articles.


IMP : We are taking hard efforts to update this web for stock markets & also some current affairs without charging any fees for all such things but one thing we expect from the readers of this articles that if they like the artiles then its their duty to forward it to friends, groups, communities etc for their awareness.....


Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 5 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Close 4681
Supports : 4666 / 4646 / 4616
Resistances : 4717 / 4747 / 4777

Nifty closes below 4700 on the second day of the week & this was the cause of concern yesterday we talked about. So 1 day above 4700 & 1 day below 4700, so does this means the rally has ended or the huge profit booking can come ????

The answer is some Profit Booking can come into markets in those stocks or sectors which has given sharp run up in this rally like Auto / Cement / Reality etc, this does not mean end of bull run or so. The stocks or sectors which were laggards in this rally may now participate & help sustaining the markets at this levels & can even take to next higher levels. On last Monday we were also concerned about Reliance Pack stocks ( Index based ) who have not participated into this rally till now & we can see some +ve moves in these stocks. In last 2 days we saw that at some point of time these stocks have lead the markets to make news highs for the year but these stocks individually are far away from the highs.

Today we can see some volatile moves in the markets as Tug of War will be seen between Bulls & Bears for close above 4700 or below 4700. Such war leads to high intraday volatility causing tough time for day traders as sometimes stoplosses are hit & even targets are achieved. Stocks / sectors which we feel can participate if markets close above 4700 is Banking & Capital Goods. The Banking & Financial space is amongst the highest weightage among other sectors in Indices, so we feel that these two sectors can contribute more to the rally but only on close above 4700 for minimum 2 days. The views will be negated if markets does not close above these levels.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 04 August 2009 :

Fii +259
Dii +253
Fii (derivatives) -121
Index Futures -427
Index Options +278
Stock Futures +63
Stock Options -35
Market Volumes below 1Lac Crore mark since last 2 days.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 4 August 2009

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Close : 4711
Supports : 4696 / 4676 / 4646
Resistances : 4747 / 4777 / 4807

Nifty spot made days high at 4724 very close to test our resistance level of 4726 as updated yesterday. Also Nifty managed to close above 4700 levels which we mentioned yesterday & said that if markets manage to close above these levels then we may soon see 4800 - 5000 levels.

Nifty if manages to close above 4700 today also then the trend may be intact or this breakout may even prove as false breakouts. So second day close above 4700 is much more required to provide Fire to the Bullish Steam Engine. The Trail stop loss can now be moved from 4400 levels to 4444 levels, this level can also be termed as short term reversal level if we close below this.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 03 August 2009 :

Fii +347
Dii +61
Fii (derivatives) +417 (net)
Index Futures +358
Index Options -14
Stock Futures +67
Stock Options +5

Sensex yesterday was up by 250 points only & the rally was mainly led by Reliance pack, Auto, Metals , Reality etc. Also we were concerned about that Markets are making new highs for the year but Reliance pack stocks are about 10-20-30% away from their recent highs, so we may see some big moves in some of these stocks in short term as we saw yesterday.

Few days back we had talked about good results in the U.S markets like Goldman Sachs / Citi / J.P Morgan etc & also Results impact of Indian cos , could give trend reversal & good moves in the short term & fortunately the same happened. We tracked Dow Jones when it was 8100-8200 levels & today its 9200+ levels almost gain of 10% in just months time. Remember U.S economy is in recession & have potiential to give 10% in just months time so why cant our markets give 10-30% return in short term. Based on one of these logic we betted long on Indian Equity markets & would still continue with the same.

When markets were crossing 1 by 1 break out levels we requested people please do not go short in these rising bull markets & in such markets the Theme is Buy on Dips(Corrections) & hold & book profits on comfort levels but we see that many people come out in live markets, spread some rubbish rumors & give sell calls on Nifty futures & individual stock futures. But the final result is many of them are trapped now & are finding hiding places or staying away from the public. Some Biggies are facing the heat too in current scenario but the names cannot be declared as its Question of Status Quo-Pro. Retail people must not repeat this mistakes again of being drawn by some rumors & must not get trapped at any levels & keep booking profits on comfort levels.

Note : Adani Power Fixes Ipo price at Rs 100/- & Premium is placed around 8 - 12 Rs.

Read Disclosure & Disclaimer on www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 03 August 2009

Hello Friends,




Nifty weekly charts.

NifTiee close : 4636
Supports : 4616 / 4586 / 4546
Resistances : 4676 / 4696 / 4726

Weekly charts shows Inverted Head & Shoulder formations & also a Cup & Handle formation with Neckline at 4700 levels. Close above 4700 can take markets to 4800 - 5000 levels as we are updating since last many days. The trail stop loss to the long positions can now be placed near 4400 levels on closing basis. Recently the Trend is UP & there is strong momemtum in the markets, but close above 4700 only could provide Fire to the Bullish Engine.

As the IPO season is back please take care while applying as this could prove a fashion in the markets like we saw for Ques in QIP's, NCD's & so on. This time take care that people do not commit mistakes committed in past by applying IPO's. Recently the Adani Power ipo closed with 21x subscribed with 2x from retail front & rest from QIB segments. Please note that do not follow QIB nos as they need only to pay the margin money while subscribing to IPO & they can cancel the subscriptions any time just by paying small penalties. Retailers stay alert as they are huge in nos & most of the bigger cos TG's are Retail People only.


Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 31 July 2009 :

Fii +582
Dii +316
Fii (derivatives) +660
Index Futures +190
Index Options +182
Stock Futures +240
Stock Options +49
Market Volumes Crossing 1Lac Crore mark since last few days.

IMP Note : These days we see lot many cases of people infected due to seasonal fever, Cough, Loose motions & many more. These are being reported from different areas in the country, the cause can be the drinking water we have during rainy season & sometimes it can be the fruits & vegetables we eat. During rainy season the drinking water we get from the Muncipal corporation is not enough purified due to excess water supply or any other reason so in bad times we need to become our own doctor & Boil the water before drinking to downsize the impact of impurities. Another thing is the fruits & vegetables we eat during this rainy season are not adequtely managed & sometimes are being cleaned by the road side water ( Gutter ka pani ), This generates harmfull bacteria in the food & infects the person who eats it. Also many cases are being reported that in such fruits & vegetables small insects or crawllers alive has been found, if person eating that do not clean properly or remove them before cooking then the same insects goes into your body in dead form & causes uncertain diseases which you would have never thought of. Sometimes you wonder " ACHA KHASA INSAAN THA KAL TAK AAJ ACHANAK ITNA BIMAR KAISE HO GAYA " This person could be the Victim of such uncertainities.

WE ARE UPDATING THIS ON BLOG AS WE ALONG WITH YOUR WEALTH ADVISOR WOULD ALSO LIKE TO BE PART OF YOUR HEALTH ADVISOR & WE STRONGLY BELIEVE " Health is Wealth "

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com