A Long Note After A Long Time
Some Flash Back :
Sensex up 3000 points only in just 1 months time & Nifty up by 900 points from recent lows.
If you are regular reader of our NEWSLETTERS on our website http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/ then you will remember that in last month we have told about TIME ANALYSIS from 15 FEb 2009 to 15 March 2009 that we are into 13 month of the fall from January 2008 & there were TWO possible scenarios in this month. At the same time Markets were around 8500-9000 Sensex levels or 2600-2700 Nifty levels & were falling :
1. In this Fibo month markets are bound to make new bottoms or
2. If markets holds OCT'08 Lows & if the time is passed (Fibo month) then think that SHORT TERM BOTTOM is made.
Markets after falling much entered into congestion level in 1st & 2nd Week of March 2009 & exactly on 13 March 2009 gave a break out after congesting from 2525 to 2610 levels.
Since then the markets are moving up & up only giving 1 or 2 days jerk on lower side but then recovering very sharply from the fallen levels. This showed that markets are into strong bull hands & the possible LOGICAL reasons for this upmove was
1. Lack of Participation from the Retail front
2. Lack of Confidence into Markets even by LONG TERM investors as the sharp decline in prices forced them to change the meaning of such LONG Investing.
3. Year End Rally to maintain the NAV's
4. Pre Election Rally
5. Lots of FDI money moving into India for Long Term Investments & Many Hot Monies too entering India either into RBI Bonds as RBI hiked Bond limits 2 to 3 times & all the time limit was hit. Another indicator was Re / $ which was at mutli year high around 51-52 levels.
Anyways Bull run was Important whether it comes for any reason as it was Long Awaited.
Current Scenario :
We are completing 5 Straight weeks of NON STOP Dhamaka Bull Run & Markets are very close to Strong Resistance Area, Nifty Resistance Zone 3400 to 3434 where we have Trendline Resistance on Daily LOG Charts, We have 200 DMA around 3434-3450 levels. Also we have FIBO resistance level of 38.2% in this range of 3400-3434. 5 Weeks is FIBO figure are might give some Jerks in Short term.
Alternate Scenario Crossover & Close above Magical Level of 3434 for Minimum 2 to 3 days can take markets to 3600-3800 levels in short term only. But Remember close is very important for the above targets.
We have been updating the Nifty levels to all our sms members by sending messages Regularly. Take a sample of this services on this same website. Also on Hourly charts 2 or 3 tops have been made around 3400 levels on higher levels & supports have been made around 3303 spot Nifty levels. Sustaining below 3303 levels can take Nifty to 3251 - 3232 / 3151 levels. 3151 spot Nifty levels is very important on the lower side. The Trail stop loss for this long bull run can now be placed around 3131 - 3151 levels.
For Short Term Traders buying at Supports & Selling at Resistances could be key Trading !dea to ride the Volatility. Lots of Small Cap & Mid Cap Stocks are on move after sustained & confident rallies from Large cap Stocks. After certain % of profits keep booking profits in this month as Election Results could be the Surprising this year. History says during Election markets has been Highly Volatile & Post Election there has been fall in the markets depending on the PARTY Selected to form the Government at the Centre. Elections in Maharashtra are on 30 April 2009, so Trading holiday has been given on this day. Contracts expiring on 30 April 2009 will now expire on 29 April 2009 as updated by NSE Circulars.
This year Voters need to take care while Voting for any Candidate or Party as verify their Past records like Education / No Criminal Records / Services rendered during the time when they were at Centre ETCCCCC. Take a look on this website to check past records http://nationalelectionwatch.org/ , if you like it then pass on to as many as possible to spread awareness.
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Regards,AXIT D SHAH
Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
