Market Views for Week 2 Feb to 6 Feb 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Updating Nifty End of Day Chart for 30 January 2009



Nifty Monthly close 2875 lower then close of last month 2959.
But Nifty gave higher weekly close in last 3 weeks.

As said in many last market updates that Trend reversal levels are placed on lower side if we close below 2725 for minimum 2 to 3 days but the same did not happened as it close below 2725 for jst 1 day & pulled back up sharply. The break down was then just a false one.
On higher side trend reversal was placed at 2855 levels & many times markets tested it & fell sharply. But today was a different day as Nifty managed to close above 2855 for the 1st time in 3 weeks & also 1st close above 2855. If Nifty manages to close above this for few more trading sessions then we may higher levels in markets & test resistances as updated in charts.

We are entering into an Trend Reversal month of Feb 2009 which is 13th Month from Jan 2008 , where the fall in markets started. 13 is Fibo number & in this month we may see high volatile sessions. If markets needs to make bottom or already made then in this month it will make & may hold it for long time & if it wil make new bottom then also its possible.

If new bottom is not made then existing bottom in markets wil provide good support for months to come. So traders need to take care & also remember PESSIMISM PRODUCES PRICES FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS....

Also in coming days Elections dates may be announced & Non Compliance rules wil apply to the Polling parties. May be there wil be presenstion of Mini Budget on time or b4 time. Bankers say that there are chances of possible Rate Cut by RBI & many final steps wil be taken to show glommy picture of Economy & Country. So overall Feb 2009 wil be a month of many Suprises, Volatile.

Last week I happened to be in Ahmedabad, Gujarat & as bad habbit of mine, I liked to talk to many people & make them friends & so onnn.... In that talk I tried to analyse people's mentality about markets.... I got very common word from many people that " Markets are likely to fall & Sensex will test 6500 level on 15th Febuary 2009 & they were so confident that if markets wil not come down then they wil do something to bring markets down " ...... Some times I feel pitty for these people as they say things blindly without understanding what they are speaking up. They may not know that their views may bring Depression to many people who have buying stocks still in portfolio & may end up doing some wrong things in life.

So my humble request is to all this Bears that what ever you know just keep it upto you & we know that since last year you have become very smart too. Remember common men or retail clients are blind & they blindly follow what leaders say as when markets were 18000 - 20000 they say markets will go to 25000-30000 & now this time when markets are at 9000-10000 they say market wil test 7000-6000 levels. Please remember Bulls Rules for 5 years & Bears Rules only for one year or even lesser. Mentality or Human Psychology in India of worldwide is Buy & sell & then earn. You can test this with any business & any persons mentality apart from stock or financial markets as general mentality.

According to my views just study what you are speaking as ur views may be bearish but in your portfolio you wil surely have few stocks bought & you must b hoping that their prices should shoot up too.

Still many things to write & speak up about our ventures , projects etcccc but time does not permit us to do so, We many times PRAY GOD TO MAKE OUR DAY FOR 48 HRS or 72 HRS SO THAT WE MAY WORK MORE for our People.

PROVISIONAL FII FIGURES IN RS CRORES FOR 30 JANUARY 2009

Fii -64
Dii +398
Fii (derivatives) +67

Post your Views or Suggestions on AlliesFin@Gmail.com along with your
Name :
Place :
Mobile nos :
Such Feedback from you will help us to serve you better.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

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Market View for 22 January 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Todays culprit THE EDUCOMPPPPPPPPP



NIFTY END OF DAY CHART 21 JANUARY 2009






Nifty close below trend reversal levels for the 1st day, we need to get this confirmation for 2 to 3 days on closing basis. If we close below this for few days then we can seen see lower levels of 2550 - 2400 too & if not then this could be false break down too & we may move up again. The Nifty spot level for tomorrow to be watched out are 2650-2665.

Relaince group stocks was in selling pressure since morning & Rel Cap made new 52 week low, The results to be watched out tomorrow is Reliance Industries ( mkt estimate is weaker by 20-25% ).

PROVISIONAL FIGURES IN RS CRORES FOR 21 JANUARY 2009

Fii - 787
Dii +283
Fii(deri) -625
Idx fut -713
Idx opt +74
Stk fut +46
Stk opt -33

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

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Warren Buffets Advice for 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

We begin this New Year with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism.Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financialillness that has infected our families, organisations and nations.Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financialillness and help them recover their financial health.Every new year, I adopt a couple of old maxims as my beacons to guidemy future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with eachpassing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you totap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and becomefinancially wiser.

* Hard work: All hard work bring a profit, but mere talk leads only topoverty.

* Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.

* Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income. [ At leastmake your Investments get you second earning ]

* Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things youneed.

* Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is leftafter saving.

* Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.

* Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.

* Auditing: Beware of little expenses; A small leak can sink a large ship.

* Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet. [Have an alternate plan ready ]

* Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm certain that those who have already been practicing theseprinciples remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident thatthose who resolve to start practicing these principles will quicklyregain their financialhealth.

Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/ ( Reg 4 Stk mkt Alerts)

Newsletters & Reports : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Market View 21 January 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Nifty EOD ( End of day 20 January 2009 ) charts has been updated.

2day after gap down opening markets traded in very narrow range the whole remained in the same. In the last trading some movements are seen in rates & figs are changing & this has been happening since last many days.

2day also Relaince group stocks show ealy gains in last hour of trade but gave as some selling seen in RIL itself. Also Power stocks gave some quick gains in last hour of trade after CERC ups 2009 - 2014 ROE for power units by 150 bps; CERC also ups depreciation rate for power utilities.

Still trend reversal levels are placed at on close below 2725 on lower side & 2855 on upper side 4 break outs till then it wil remain in this consolidation range.

Nifty trading levels are updated in the Chart itself.

P.S : Market commentry , newsletters , reports & many more stuffs are being updated on http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin & send to all group members. You can also be part of it, jst click on the link & JOIN urself.

PROVISIONAL FIGURES RS CRORES FOR 20 JANUARY 2009

Fii -308
Dii +185
Fii(deri) -4
Idx Fut +15
Idx opt -110
Stk Fut +61
Stk opt +31
(the same has been updated by sms too )

Good Day


Regards,

Allies Financial Services

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Market Views for 20 January 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,



Market views has been explained in the image.

Nifty Close: 2846
Support : 2825, 2810, 2750
Resistance : 2855, 2875, 2920

Trend reversal level of this fall is placed at 2855 Nifty spot level & if we fall & close below 2750 level then we can see more profit booking or fresh shorts can be initiated with trail stop loss.

Reliance pack as we are recomending since last many to free sms group members by sms have benefitted by gaining around 5 - 10 % in just few quick sessions.

PROVISIONAL FIGURES RS CRORES FOR 19 JANUARY 2009

Fii -363
Dii +276
Fii(deri) -456

Good Day,

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

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What is recession ?

Hello Readers / Visitors,

What is recession ?

Good understanding, click on to read it

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Allies Financial Services

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Small Retail Investors: Scapegoats Again

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Small Retail Investors: Scapegoats Again

Click to read the report

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Allies Financial Services

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MARKET VIEW FOR 7 JANUARY 2009

Hello,

After flat opening markets traded in very narrow range today & tested higher band resistance of 3140-3160 & some intra day profit booking was seen. In this profit booking Nifty tested supports of 3050 spot levels. Again some value buying or pull back merged from supports & managed to close at 3113 spot.

Nifty Close 3113
Supports : 3080, 3050, 3030
Resistances : 3135, 3160, 3180

For tomorrow markets are likely to test higher levels due to some momemtum buying in last hour of trade. Profit booking is also not ruled out. If we manage to close above 3160 then Nifty can test 3220 - 3250 levels. The likely trading range of Nifty could be 3050 - 3180.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATE :

Ril, after it managed to close above 1275 showed a very sharp rise upto 1390 levels which is around 10% return in just a weeks time. What else u want ?

Ril close 1370
Supports : 1350, 1335, 1315
Resistances : 1385, 1399, 1415

For tomorrow Ril is likely to trade in range of 1335 - 1385 & either ways break outs or break downs can make the stock more volatile.

PROVISIONAL CASH FIGURES FOR 06 JANUARY 2009 IN RUPEES CRORES

Fii +374
Dii -12
Fii(derivatives) +385

Please note : NIFTY IS FACING CHANNEL RESISTANCE NEAR 3150-3180 BUT SENSEX HAS CLEARED THIS RESISTANCE ON DAILY CHARTS. SO ONCE NIFTY CROSSES THIS LEVELS & MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE THIS THEN WE CAN SEE 3250 - 3350 OR EVEN HIGHER LEVELS. THE TRAIL STOP LOSS FOR LONG POSITIONS IN THIS CHANNEL PATTERN COULD BE CLOSE BELOW 3030 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS.

RUMORS MARKET : Since last many days there are many rumors arising in markets as when markets moves up people say there is FUEL price cut etccc & when markets give up the gains then people say that PM has given ulimatum to PAK & so onnnn.... We would like to tell this peoples that please dont spread such rumors as your decision to spread rumors is very sensitive in current volatility & many people panic & may end up making losses in a day for no reason.

Good day, Happy Trading

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

Market View 5 January 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

As expected profit booking seen on last Friday once Nifty spot tested 3080 resistance levels & managed to close at 3047. On Friday eve stimulas pack was out & many hype has been built up about markets opening on Monday as people expect Gap up opening in range of 3100-3130.

Nifty close : 3047
Supports : 3030, 2990, 2950
Resistances : 3080, 3110, 3150

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATES :

Ril after many days of consolidation managed to cross & close above 1275 levels with volumes too.
Ril close 1286
Supports : 1270, 1250, 1225
Resistances : 1295, 1310, 1335

PROVISIONAL CASH FIGURES FOR 02 JANUARY 2009 IN RUPEES CRORES :

Fii +121
Dii +239

Fii (derivatives) +416
Idx fut +44
Idx opt +247
Stk fut +12
Stk opt +113

SO A GAP UP OPENING EXPECTED BUT WILL THE MARKETS SUSTAIN HIGHER LEVELS IS BIG ? AS ON EVERY IMP RESISTANCES PROFIT BOOKING STARTS & AFTER THIS PACK THE EVENTS TO HELP MARKETS MOVE UP MAY BE FUEL PRICE CUT, PRE BUDGET OR PRE ELECTION RALLY & THE WEAKER SIDE COULD BE WEAK RESULTS FROM COS. MAY BE THE BUDGET MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTIBLE FOR THIS ELECTION YEAR.

GOOD DAY, HAPPY TRADING
Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin

STIMULAS PACK ( PART 2 )

Hello Readers / Visitors,

The government and the Reserve Bank announced the fiscal and monetary policy measures on Friday evening, There should be some reaction to the monetary policy moves, because they are a little better than expected. You can debate how long the banks will take to pass all of it down, but they will pass it down and bankers are increasingly coming around saying that they will pass down cuts in both deposit and lending rates. So, interest rates are going down, bond yields presumably falling below 5%, on Monday morning are all positive for equities, so there will be reaction particularly in some of the interest rate sensitives.

On the fiscal policy front I don’t think the stimulus package was great, there were small bits of it, which are not bad, but still there is a lot left to be desired, so the reaction will be probably more to the monetary policy package than to the fiscal bit. There was not much on the housing front or the real estate stocks front, as was expected, also there wasn’t much for the exporters, which was also largely expected. However, there was a bit about trying to route in money through NBFC’s, but, both access to capital and the willingness of infrastructure developers to take that money is a bit suspect.

On the direct expenditure from the government, precious little has been done, so Rs 30,000 crore more is thrown into IIFCL’s kitty over a period of time, the time it takes to come and the quantum of it is fairly low, so don’t think the fiscal package measures up to anything major aside of a sentimental blip up, but the monetary policy measures were good enough.

The government has announced a second fiscal stimulus package amounting to Rs 20,000 crore. Meanwhile, The RBI has cut the cash reserve ratio by 50 bps and both the repo and reverse repo rates by 100 bps. (100 bps=1%) The CRR now stands at 5%, while the repo rate post the cut stands at 5.5% from 6.5% earlier. The reverse repo rate is now at 4% from 5% earlier.

So now the most awaited STIMULAS PACK is out & what next now ?

The next could be results season & many analysts say that this season could be weaker more then expected as many job cuts heard, many industries were closed down, many have very high invesntory & no sales & so on. Also the next trigger could be fuel price cut which could lead markets higher but may come after results season to change the sentiments & close to Election months.

ALSO AFTER RESULTS SEASON PEOPLE WILL START TALKING ABOUT PRE BUDGET RALLY OR PRE ELECTION RALLY AS THIS YEAR FALLS TO BE ELECTION YEAR TOO.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

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Market Views for 02 January 2009

Hello Readers / Visitors,

Nifty, surpassing 1 resistance & testing 2nd resistance. Nifty has stiff resistance at 2990 since last 2 days & was unable to close above that but yesterday once it crossed 2990 tested 3030, again a resistance. The volumes are too low since last 1 week & trading sessions are also witnessing range bound moves & all of sudden buying or sell off & again settles down.

Stock specific moves are seen & the stocks which has gained or lost yesterday may not participate in todays rally or sell off as the sectors are changed immediately. The outlook for today remains +ve but we may see profit booking at higher or resistance levels.

Nifty Intra day Levels : Close 3033
Supports : 2990, 2950, 2920
Resistances : 3060, 3080, 3110

As told in last few updates when Nifty crossed 2920 levels that there are higher chances of markets testing upper resistances of 3030 or 3110 in this pull back rally, hope u might have benefitted from this views.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES UPDATE:

The stock is still trading in a very narrow range or price band from 1225 - 1265 since last many days, so there are no change in the technical levels.

Ril close : 1255
Supports : 1225, 1210, 1190
Resistances : 1265, 1275, 1290

PROVISIONAL TRADING FIGURES FOR 01 JANUARY 2009 IN RUPEES CRORES :

Fii +4
Institutions +160
Fii (deri) +4

NEWS: TODAY 5 SCRIPS IN CASH MARKETS WILL NOT HAVE ANY CIRCUIT FILTER AS DECLARED BY EXCHANGES,

As a part of Surveillance review and pursuant to a decision in the meeting held at SEBI, it has been decided that no Circuit Filter will be applicable to the following securities w.e.f January 02, 2009.

Sr.No.
ScripCode
ScripName
1
500877
Apollo Tyres Limited
2
500674
Aventies Pharma Ltd.
3
531807
ING Vysya Bank Ltd.
4
532921
Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd.
5
500308
Nirma Ltd.
6
500330
Raymond Ltd.

Trading Members are requested to take note of the same.

GOOD DAY , HAPPY TRADING

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Website : http://alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Newsletters : http://groups.google.com/group/alliesfin