Lets take a Break

Pranam.

Everyone is interested in knowing whether the stock markets have peaked. Various methods are used to find an answer. Some study the economy and broad trends. Some look at patterns. Clues like relative performance of small, mid and large caps. Maybe, even sudden spurts in the construction of tall buildings. There is another approach.

It is based on a simple piece of logic. Investors are basically buyers of part ownership, called shares, of businesses. On the other side of the table, promoters are sellers of these shares. Sellers generally have more knowledge about their goods and its true worth. They would also like to fetch a high price for their goods. Hence, a rush of IPO indicates that promoters like the prices. Interestingly, there is a flurry of IPOs of late. A rush not seen since April this year.
Then there are stock splits and bonus issues. They are mainly done when the share price rises to levels which seem unaffordable for small investors. The number of shares outstanding increase after splits and bonuses and the share price goes down proportionately. In the last two weeks, 13 listed entities have opted for them. Since August, the number is 33.

Of course, the best way of judging valuations is to study companies on a case to case basis. But short of that, sellers' behavior is a great indicator. Right now, the indications are that there are very few bargains left for Indian investors. Hence, it would be advisable to exercise extreme caution.

So lets take a break and go for something different.

--
Yours Sincerely,

Jeet R.Shah ~ M.Com , CFP

Research Advocate

--

!****!****!

Hv a Gr8 Day,

Warm Regards,

ALLIES FINANCIAL SERVICES Borivali (w), Mumbai, India

eMail : AlliesFin@gmail.com

Yahoo: AlliesFin9@yahoo.com

Web: www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com 

!~! Consider Enviroment Before Printing Anything !~!

Survival in MARKETS

Hello Friends,

NIFTY AT 5100+

SENSEX AT 17000+

In last 2 weeks we have seen markets to move in a very volatile way making tough for the day traders & even for the Investors who track markets regularly.

Just last week at Tuesday was at Friends Wedding when the markets tanked the most & tested 4800 for Nifty & Sensex around 16000 lvls lost of Phone calls were received due to humans Panic nature as if its no Tomorrow. Its truly said that " PEOPLE TEND TO BUY MORE AT HIGHER LEVELS RATHER THN TO GET CONVICTION AT LOWER LEVELS ". We mean to say that due to Advisor in nature people dont just let us to enjoy the WEDDING function which generally happens once in LIFE TIME of Friend.

At that time people tell us that markets are going to tumble upto 4400 - 4000 - 3600 lvls & MERA KYA HOGA SAGA & so on & they were so convinced about the fall which some time shaken my conviction for the markets. But today we saw that Nifty made New weekly TOP at 5125 which is exactly the Resistance zone of Current rise & fall. A sign of relief was seen among the Bull traders as it had crossed recent top of 5097 & closed above that. we may see smart Short covering once Spot Nifty closes above 5125 levels moving it for next level at 5165 ~ 5202.

But still the conviction is missing among them & the sentiments are sitting at years low, like Volatility Index SEBI along with Exchanges must start Sentimental Index too which must indicate how people panic at lower levels & chase at higher levels, just kidding.

That day we remember that even MARGIN calls were triggered out at Brokers desk & many peoples stocks were thrown away at cheap prices leaded for distress sell off. The very Next day markets opened GAP up & some stocks which saw distress selling were up +ve by anywhere between 2-5% only. Today is a day when the same Broker is telling that clients to buy at 5100 levels. What a Tragedy or Thriller ???

From Brokers prespective they offer over LEVERAGE to clients for small or cheap Brokerages as they have huge overheads & to overcome that they have to even work at Cheapest or free of cost prices by just collecting the Taxes like STT etc from clients.

OUR ADVISE TO THE RETIALERS / HNI / MNI'S IS DONT ASK FOR OVER LEVERAGES OR OVER EXPOSURE FROM THE BROKERS IF YOU WANT TO SURVIVE AT PANIC TIMES ELSE GET READY TO FACE THE CONSEQUENCES. ALSO SAME ADVISE TO BROKERS THAT IF YOU WANT TO SURVIVE FOR NEXT FEW YEARS IN TO MARKETS THEN DO NOT OFFER SUCH OVER EXPOSURES TO CLIENTS. IF YOUR CLIENT IS FINISHED TODAY BY WAY OF LOSSESS THEN TOMORROW ITS SURE SHOT CALL THAT YOU AS A BROKER ARE GOING TO BE FINISHED. PEOPLE WILL TELL OTHERS THAT WE HEARD A BROKERS NAME xxxx / yyyy BT " ONCE UPON A TIME " .

Anyways after enough philosophy Markets after moving in a very volatile form or rather VERTICAL FALL & RISE is now likely to move in HORIZONTAL Form. This means markets are likely to consolidate at current levels again making few boring days for traders but this could be +ve sign for markets in near term unless lower levels are holding grounds. The consolidation range could be 5005 to 5165 levels of Spot Nifty, kindly adjust Futures Premiums/Discounts.

INSTEAD OF BACK SEAT TRY TO COMMENT ON FRONT SEAT WHICH ARE ALWAYS INVITED BY EMAIL ON : ALLIESFIN@gmail.com

Good Day , Happy Weekend with FAMILY.

Regards,

AXIT D SHAH

{ Founder & Advisor }

Allies Financial Services

Mumbai, India

Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Mobile WAP: http://m.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/ALLIESFIN

Market Views

Hello Friends,

Nifty Daily Charts

Last week we have updated Nifty Charts with Short term supports & resistances zone. The markets took support near Trendline Supports & resisted from Trendline resistances as shown in charts updated above.

Views for short term updated in charts itself.

Yahoo id : AlliesFin@ymail.com

Email : AlliesFin@gmail.com

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services

Mumbai, India

Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Mobile Web : http://m.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN

Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/ALLIESFIN

Rescue Time at Crucial Levels.

Hello Friends,

After long time Blog has been updated with views on Markets & especially Nifty, which has been the Darling for many of Derivatives Traders.


After making years high at 5400 till date Nifty saw profit booking & once double bottom was broken at 5200 shorts were build up. Now Nifty has made a low of 4984 which is very close to imp support area of 4950 which is 200 DMA & Trendline support area connecting earlier 2 lows & current one as shown in charts ( click on charts to enclarge).

At current Nifty will be in consolidation zone between 4950-5040 a 90 pts range, which is good for markets after such huge dips in last week. The week gone by we had DOW JONES dip by 1000 pts only due to error in Algo trades which NYSE agreed to cancel. If that would have been recorded then it would be an history in U.S markets.

Below 4950 close, we see Nifty to test earlier break out areas of 4800-4860 which have been updated in our earlier posts on our blog http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/ , but this may happen only in panic situations if the Global markets could see a drastic fall again else it may hold the grounds. Also last week RIL-RNRL case verdict was out favoring RIL, the stock was up 3% while RNRL was dn only 22%. Now another 6 weeks were given by SC to re-negiotiate the terms between 2 bros or 2 cos.

Currently Nifty is trading down by 7-8% from recent Tops just following global markets ignoring domestic cues. The results are out & this week we had IIP nos & Inflation which could have some minimal impact on the sentiments of markets as most of the pains are out & discounted. A close above 5040 for 2 consecutive days would reverse the short term falling trend & could test the resistance areas.

The fear in markets is still on among the local players & retailers who have missed out the shorts at higher levels & are now in panic. They see markets falling more to 4700 - 4500 in the near term, but this could happen only we close below 4860 for 2 consecutive days.

Which Stocks / Sectors to buy & Nifty Target levels only for Clients.

Disclosure : We are long in markets since last Thursday.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Mobile Web : http://m.smsgupshup.com/groups/ALLIESFIN
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/ALLIESFIN

LIC’s investment brain sees Sensex at 21,000

Hello Friends,

LIC's Investments Brain See Sensex at 21,000 only , Click to read more under Discussions section.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Yahoo id : AlliesFin9@yahoo.com
(m) +91 98699 58999 / 9820 191219
Web : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/

Nifty Weekly Chart : Trend Reversal

Hello Friends,

Updating Charts with Nifty Weekly Charts with some IMP Trend Reversal Levels :

Any Comments then write us at AlliesFin@gmail.com

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

A Study from 9 Lovers for Year '09

Hello Friends,

Year ’09 gone by
*Mkts up 81% only, 1 of the Best in 18 years,
*Rupee close at 46.53 on 31/12/2009,
*Fii invested only 80,505 Crores, New Fii registered 108,
*Totat Fii’s 1710 with 477 sub accounts,
*Out of Total Fii’s 576 are from U.S only,
*Average daily Tunover in Derivatives since last 9 months was 72,000 Crores only,
*Bse Mid Cap Index up 108% while Small Cap Index up 126%, Metal index up 234% only,
*Reforms were made to Start Mkts at 9.00 Am for 6.30 hours of Long Trading,
*Nasdaq index rose by 45% only.

IF U HAVE MORE INPUTS ON THIS THEN PLS SEND US ON AlliesFin@gmail.com so we can update on this web.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin