SENSEX Exposed: 43 Years of SENSEX Data That Will Blow Your Mind: @ALLiESFiN
Over the past 43 years, there have been approximately 11,000 trading days.
Positive and negative returns were observed as follows:
- Daily: 53% positive, 47% negative
- Weekly: 56% positive, 44% negative
- Monthly: 61% positive, 39% negative
- Quarterly: 64% positive, 36% negative
- Yearly: 72% positive, 28% negative
- 3 years: 89% positive, 11% negative
- 5 years: 96% positive, 4% negative
- 10 years: 100% positive, 0% negative
The SENSEX delivered a (CAGR) of 15.5% over the last 43 years.
Historical CAGR for different periods:
- 1980-1990: 21.6%
- 1990-2000: 14.3%
- 2000-2010: 17.8%
- 2010-2020: 8.8%
- 2020-2022: 24.8%
Taking into account an average dividend yield of 1.4%, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of BSE Sensex is approximately 16.9%, resulting in a value of around 80,000.
The longest period of consecutive positive returns was from 1994 to 2003, spanning 9 years.
Since 2002, there have been no single-year rolling returns negative over any 7-year period, implying no loss if money was invested for a minimum of 7 years.
Actively managed equity funds have shown the following CAGR returns over 20 years:
- Hybrid: 15.96%
- Diversified: 16.25%
- ELSS: 18.20%
- All Funds (excluding LIC and few AMCs): 16.41%
SENSEX was at 3800 in June 1996 (26 years back). Over the last 26 years, the average equity mutual fund delivered 18% CAGR.
If SENSEX had performed as well as the average mutual fund scheme:
- At 16.4% CAGR, SENSEX could be around 1,70,000 levels.
- At 18% CAGR, SENSEX could be around 2,38,000 levels.
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