People remain concerned about what inflation looks like and how the Fed is going to act to mitigate the situation.*
Investors positioned for the prospect of higher interest rates as soon as March, with parts of Wall Street joining many economists in saying the Fed has waited far too long to hike. Traders also braced for a consumer-price report on Wednesday that could show a 7% headline year-over-year rise for December, a level which may not let up until the March reading.
*While still around some of its lowest level since mid-October, the Nasdaq avoided closing below its 200-day moving average, at 14,688.73, for the first time since April 21, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It also stayed above the 14,451.69 level that would have marked a correction, or 10% fall from its recent peak.*
It's the tension between large players in the market which have been reallocating from growth to value and retail investors who only have interest in the technology names. We've gotten to the point where you wonder if the roller coaster has peaked and is heading straight down. But fundamentally there's a lot of buyers in this market buying on the dip.
In an interview that aired on Monday, JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC that the U.S. is headed for the best growth in decades, and that he’d be surprised if the Fed hikes by only four times this year. That’s more than the three hikes signaled by Fed officials in their December projections.
Economists at both Deutsche Bank _ and Goldman Sachs _ expect four rate hikes this year, and a reduction of the Fed’s more than $8 trillion balance sheet that could begin in the third quarter. But Deutsche’s researchers also see the possibility that policy makers might need to consider hiking interest rates at almost every meeting in 2022 “unless financial conditions notably tighten,” Jim Reid, head of thematic research, and others wrote on Monday.
Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a late Sunday note that “declining labor market slack has made Fed officials more sensitive to upside inflation risks and less sensitive to downside growth risks.”
Friday’s labor report came in at 199,000 jobs in December, worse than forecast, but it also showed a decline in the unemployment rate to a pandemic low and a rise in wages. The labor-market reading came after Fed minutes released last Wednesday signaled that policy makers are eager to tighten financial policy to battle inflation, with market-based projections pointing to at least three interest-rate increases this year.
Some analysts are adopting a much more sanguine view of the market’s outlook, despite the imminent tightening of financial conditions.
*On Monday, BlackRock Investment Institute’s global chief investment strategist, Wei Li, and others said that although central banks will move away from emergency stimulus, they won’t necessarily “hit the brakes by raising rates to restrictive levels.” In addition, the three rate hikes being penciled in by policy makers for this year is “more than we expected.” “We prefer equities and would use COVID-related selloffs to add to risk,” they wrote.*
Later in the week, investors will watch the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, followed by one for Lael Brainard, the Fed governor who has been nominated to become the central bank’s No. 2 after Vice Chairman Richard Clarida steps down. Clarida announced late Monday he would resign effective Jan. 14, two weeks before his term was due to end.
Earnings season also begins this week, with financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo release quarterly results Friday.
*Which companies were in focus?*
Lululemon Athletica LULU warned fourth-quarter earnings and revenue would be at the low end of its target, citing the impact of the omicron variant on capacity and staff. Shares finished 1.9% lower.
By: via @AlliesFin Serve Stock Market
