Hello Friends,
N i f T i e e intra day levels
Close : 5007
Supports : 4994 / 4977 / 4949
Resistances : 5023 / 5050 / 5080
Markets after GAP up opening witnessed a very range bound session of just 20-25 points in Nifty. We continue with our previous receomendations that Nifty spot must cross & close above 5025 - 5050 with good volumes for fresh buying in markets for further up move. Till then it would be stock / sector specific moves.
Few days back we talked about Euphoria in People's Favorite stocks & untill we see that markets may not see major correction. Since last week we are witnessing such accumulation in many mid/small cap stocks which leads to beginning of Euphoria. In such moves, stocks / sectors gives wild upside moves making people feel that they have missed the rally & they start entering in markets as if there is no tomorrow. Such rally makes people to forget Valuations / Fundamentals / Technicals / Global news / etc etc. Generally such rallies are the last leg of the Bull run in short term. So people must try to control their emotions & must do thorough study be for entering the stock.
Yesterday was the 1st close above 5000 levels & if today Nifty manages to close above 5000 then we may see Euphoria in days to come. Above 5050 higher resistances are placed at 5080 - 5115 - 5151. Also another thing to be watched is Re/$ move as since last many months Re/$ is being in the range 48-50 & most of the Foreign monies are invested around these levels. When markets were near last peak of 21k Re/$ use to trade around 40-42, so from current 48 levels we still atleast 5-10% Rupee appreciation in the near term like not 40-42 but atleast we may see 44-46 levels. So if we see Euphoria in markets & along with that if we see Rupee appreciating then such logic outcome is mainly the last leg of the rally.
Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 29 Septmeber 2009 :
Fii +715
Dii +92
Fii (derivatives) +697
Index Futures +158
Index Options +123
Stock Futures +417
Stock Options -2
Fii OI 62k Crores only.
Markets Volumes were low around 60k Crores only.
News:
* Oil India ipo listing, premium 40-50 Rs per share.
* Fii's in buying spree since last many days & months & analyst are having cautious approach, under such coilation lets see where are Markets headed ????
* BSNL may come up with IPO nxt year : every year such news comes out, the story of BSNL-MTNL merger builds up or story of MTNL land sale builds up the stock moves up investors / traders start believing the story - buys stock at higher levels - stocks falls - investors/traders gets trapped. Since last many years we have seen the same story repeating in markets.
*Fii flows have been 5th Highest in September 2009 : Fii being net buyers in Equity markets by Rs 17k Crores only in September itself & being recorded as best month for inflows after May 2009. Fii inflows have been Rs 57k Crores only this year till date which means more money came into Indian markets against 55k Crores which went out in year 2008. Still we are only 4000 Points away from peak of 21k from recent 17k. Does this mean that Fii are more confident about India's Growth Story as compared to the Citizens of India.
Good Day
Regards,
Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com
